In this regard, Shanghai Metal's spot analysts believe that Shandong, Henan, Guizhou, northeastern regions and other regions of the processing market, the strong consumption is the main reason. He said that the phenomenon of stock-outs in the Shanghai spot market and the rise of water for a few days are mainly due to the fact that the upstream shipments are relatively small, and local production of aluminum is allocated to local deep-processing companies, so there is no cargo that can be sent to Shanghai. .
Lin Xihui, an analyst of China International Futures, said that from September to November is the traditional peak season for aluminum consumption, aluminum consumption will increase significantly in these months, but the output of electrolytic aluminum has remained relatively stable recently, although It may increase, but it still cannot keep up with the growth rate of consumption, causing tight supply of cash.
Industry analyst Miao Xiaojie also said that the sale of aluminum is very active all over the country. The shortage of spot is not only in the Shanghai area. "The trend of consumption is moving from East China and South China to the center," she said.
In view of the continuing prosperity of aluminum consumption throughout the country, Zhai Xiaojie told reporters that this is because China is in the process of industrialization and the per capita aluminum consumption has great potential. According to reports, aluminum is mainly used for building profiles in China, and a series of projects under construction such as infrastructure require large amounts of aluminum. Aluminum consumption ranks second in industrial profiles. Due to its high added value for industrial profiles, profit margins are also larger than building profiles. At present, domestic building profiles are being developed in the direction of high added value, which will promote the transformation of consumer structures and the process of industrial upgrading.
In the face of the tight market, most aluminum consumer companies have begun to purchase spot aluminum in the market. Lin Yuhui expects that by the close of September 15th, the shortage of stock and the upcoming consumer peak season will be positive in the market, and the price will rise further, and it may end until the end of the peak season in November.
The strong domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum is mainly reflected in the growth of aluminum exports. According to data released by China Customs, aluminum products exported 105,200 tons in July, and exports totaled 631,900 tons from January to July, an increase of 62.2% year-on-year. Since 2004, due to the rapid growth in investment and export of electrolytic aluminum, the country has adopted a series of regulatory measures, including the cancellation of electrolytic aluminum export tax rebates and the increase of export tariffs and the suspension of alumina processing trade. However, aluminum exports still enjoy 13% of exports. Tax rebates, so many companies will be simple processing of aluminum ingots, aluminum ingots deformed to export aluminum declaration. In July and August, domestic aluminum prices were at a relatively low level during the year. Under the circumstance that the prices of Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum were relatively low, the purchase price of domestic aluminum ingots was far lower than that of the international market. Processing companies also tended to purchase domestically and import demand decreased. Promoted aluminum consumption demand.
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