Thoughts on China's Sustainable Energy Development Strategy Chen Heping, Cheng Zhifen2 (1. Strategic Research Department, China Huaneng Group Corporation, Beijing 100088, China; 2. Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150001, China) The goal is to achieve a GDP ratio of 2,000 by 2020. Years quadrupled. To develop a new road to industrialization with high technological content, good economic returns, low resource consumption, low environmental pollution, and full utilization of human resources, we must place sustainable development on an important position to ensure that China will basically realize modernization in the middle of this century. .
The 16th National Party Congress proposed that we must concentrate our efforts in the first two decades of this century to build an overall well-to-do society that benefits more than a billion people, and basically achieve modernization by the middle of this century.
An extremely important goal in building a well-to-do society in an all-round way is to strive to quadruple the GDP in 2020 compared with 2000 on the basis of optimizing the structure and improving the efficiency. The goal of quadrupling the total agricultural output value of guaranteed agricultural labor raised 20 years ago has already been achieved in advance. The quadrupling of this time must be achieved on the basis of a larger economic aggregate and a larger population. The goal is even more ambitious. In accordance with the requirements for the coordinated development of economy, population, resources, and the environment, by 2020 and by the middle of this century, how much energy will China need to guarantee quadrupling its total number and achieve basic modernization?
1 The reasonable energy consumption trend in 2050 is 7%, while the average annual growth of energy consumption is only 3.9%, and the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption is 0... Calculated according to the GDP, the annual average energy saving rate in China reaches 5.3%. According to the calculation of consumption, China has saved an aggregate of 1.15 billion tons of standard coal and used less energy in the 20-year period, setting a saving ratio of 2.533 billion tons of standard coal.
Deputy Minister, Senior Engineer.
In 2000, China consumed 1.30 billion tons of standard coal. If China's GDP grows at an annual rate of 7% in the future, the energy consumption elasticity coefficient is still calculated based on the average of 0.4 in the previous 20 years, and the average annual growth rate of energy consumption is 2.8%. As a result, China needs to consume 5.17 billion tons of standard coal annually by 2050. Experts from the Chinese Academy of Engineering predict that by the middle of this century, China's annual energy consumption should be controlled between 3 and 380 million tons of standard coal. By then, the maximum supply of domestic energy is about 3.2 billion tons of standard coal.
Note: The top curve represents the national energy consumption development trend according to the energy intensity of 1980; the middle curve represents the energy consumption development trend according to the average energy intensity from 1980 to 2000; the bottom curve represents the energy intensity after 2000 Reduce energy consumption by about half.
In 2000, China created a GDP of 8,940.36 billion yuan, a population of 126.7 billion, consumed 1.3 billion tons of standard coal, a per capita energy consumption of about 1 ton of standard coal, and an energy intensity of 1.45 tons of standard coal per million yuan of GDP. For every 1 ton of standard coal consumed, a GDP of 0.69 million yuan is created. If the exchange rate is 8.27 per square meter, it is equivalent to 108.11 billion U.S. dollars, the per capita GDP is 853 U.S. dollars, and the energy intensity is 1202 tons of standard coal per million U.S. dollars. The value of creating a gross domestic product of 832 US dollars per ton of standard coal consumed.
At present, the per capita gross domestic product of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries has reached 23,000 U.S. dollars, and the per capita GDP of the world is about 5,300 U.S. dollars. If the average annual growth rate is 1% in the future, by 2050 the per capita GDP of the OECD countries will reach 38,000 U.S. dollars, and the world average per capita production value will be about 8,717 U.S. dollars. By the middle of this century, China will basically realize modernization and reach the level of moderately developed countries at that time. If the average per capita output value is calculated at 10,000 U.S. dollars, the population will be calculated at 1.6 billion and the national GDP will be 16 trillion U.S. dollars.
Chinaâ€™s gross domestic product from US$1 trillion in 2000 GDP, US$853 per ton of standard coal, and US$16 trillion in the middle of the century, the output value is 16 times that of 2000, and energy consumption. However, it can only grow from 1.3 billion tons of standard coal to 3.8 billion tons of standard coal, which is only three times that of 2000. On average, every US ton of ton of standard coal consumes US$4,211 in gross domestic product, nearly five times that in 2000.
Experts pointed out that the energy consumption of major energy products in China is 25% ~ 90% higher than that of developed countries, and the weighted average is about 40% higher. The energy saving potential of recent technical measures is approximately 150 million tons of standard coal. Through measures such as adjustment of industrial structure, adjustment of product structure, reduction of the proportion of high-energy-consuming industries, increase of the proportion of high-value-added products, and high quality of residential energy use, and taking into account the increase in energy consumption of 700 million tons of standard coal in 2020, The energy-saving potential of energy consumption for production value is about 300 million tons of standard coal. Therefore, China's total energy-saving potential in the near future is about 4.5 billion tons of standard coal.
In 2000, China consumed 1.33 billion tons of standard coal, which was approximately 10.5% of the world's total energy consumption of 12.43 billion tons of standard coal. China's GDP was 1.08 trillion US dollars, accounting for only 3.4% of the world's total of 31.8 trillion US dollars. It also shows that China's unit energy consumption output value only accounts for one-third of the world average. In other words, China's energy intensity or output value and the international energy gap is not a percentage, but in 2020, the trend of rational energy consumption to the full realization of a well-off society in 2020, China's GDP quadrupled to 35.8 Trillion yuan, population 1.5 billion, per capita output value of 23,800 yuan, if the average annual growth rate of energy consumption is controlled at 2.5%, total energy consumption will be 213 million tons of standard coal, per capita energy consumption is only 1.42 tons standard Coal, with an energy intensity of 0.59 tons of standard coal per ten thousand yuan of gross domestic product, generates a gross domestic product of 1.68 million yuan per ton of standard coal consumed. It can be seen from this that the output value per ton of coal in China will increase from RMB 0.49 million in 2000 to RMB 16800 in 2020, which will increase by 1.4 times. In other words, energy efficiency is more than double the 2000 level. The GDP quadrupling, and energy consumption cannot even double up, can only increase by 64%. The trend of electricity consumption in 2020 The party's 16th National Congress put forward the strategic goal of building a well-to-do society in an all-round way, and China's economy in the next 20 years. It also quadrupled, with an average annual economic growth rate of 7.18%. If the power consumption elasticity coefficient takes the average of 0.86 over the previous 20 years, the average annual growth rate of China's power generation capacity in the next 20 years will be about 6.17%. Considering that China will unswervingly take the road of sustainable development in the future, the efficiency of terminal electricity will be greatly increased, and energy consumption and energy consumption factors such as peak power consumption will be used, and the average annual growth rate will be calculated as 5.3%. The result is as follows: The capacity estimate is 100 million kilowatts a year. It will reach 530 million kilowatts in 2010, nearly 700 million kilowatts in 2015, and about 900 million kilowatts in 2020. The power generation in 2020 is about 4 trillion kWh.
In the installed capacity of 900 million kilowatts installed in China in 2020, the coal-fired generating units are approximately 5.5 to 5.7 million kilowatts (1.3 billion tons of standard coal per year), the hydropower generating units total 230 million kilowatts, the gas generating units are approximately 60 to 80 million kilowatts, and the nuclear power is approximately 3,000. Millions of kilowatts of wind power and other renewable energy sources generate about 10 million kilowatts.
At present, the installed capacity of power generation around the world is about 3.3 billion kilowatts, with a per capita installed capacity of about 0.55 kilowatts, and a per capita generating capacity of about 2,500 kwh. The United States is the worldâ€™s largest producer of electricity in the world. In 2001, the total installed capacity was about 850 million kilowatts, and the power generation capacity was 340,000. Billion kilowatt-hours, per capita installed capacity of 2.8 kilowatts, per capita generating capacity of 13,500 kwh. The per capita installed capacity and per capita power generation in the United States are more than 10 times that of China.
Even if China's installed capacity reaches 900 million kilowatts by 2020, the per capita installed capacity is only 04 kilowatts, and the average per capita electricity generation is only about 2650 kwh. It is only slightly higher than the current world average, and there is still a certain gap from the level of moderately developed countries. To reach the level of moderately developed countries, China's per capita installed capacity needs to reach about 1 kilowatt, and the average annual power generation per capita must be above 4,000 kilowatt hours. In fact, the per capita installed capacity in Shanghai in 2000 has reached 048 kilowatts, and the per capita electricity generation capacity has also reached 4,224 kilowatt hours. How much it is appropriate for China to develop nuclear power has been debated endlessly. Nuclear power does have insecurity, but vigorous development of nuclear power is also a last resort. Otherwise, it will not be able to meet the high-speed growth and environmental protection requirements of the power demand brought about by the long-term rapid economic growth. By 2020, China's development of 3,000 kilowatts of nuclear power will only account for 3.3% of the total installed capacity. It will be 100 million kilowatts by 2050. The proportion of nuclear power in China will only account for about 11% of the total installed capacity. The average nuclear power in the world's nuclear power countries will account for the total. The proportion of installed capacity is to further explore the development of wind power. At the end of 2001, the installed capacity of wind power in the world had reached 24.97 million kilowatts. From 996 to 2001, the average annual growth rate of world wind power installed capacity was 32.6%. The news came from the first World Wind Energy Conference held in Lebanon on April 2, 2002. It is said that the world has spent 25 years making the current wind power capacity reach 25 million kilowatts, but it is expected to increase to 60 million kilowatts in the next five years. It is estimated that by 2010, the installed capacity of wind power in the world will increase to 120,000 MW. At present, 15 EU countries have established wind power installations with wind power installed capacity of 20 million kilowatts. By 2020, wind power installed capacity in Europe will reach 100 million kilowatts. The world's wind power will provide 10% of the world's electricity demand. According to Xinhua News Agency, By August 2002, the installed capacity of wind power in Germany had exceeded 10 million kilowatts. It is expected that the amount of wind power generated in Germany in 2002 will exceed 20 billion kilowatt-hours. The total installed capacity of electricity in China is 2.5 times that of Germany. After 17 years, it has reached the installed capacity of 10 million kilowatts of wind power that Germany has already reached. It should be able to do it with hard work. If at that time, the world really achieved 10% of the world's electricity demand from wind power, the installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 10 million kilowatts, and the annual power generation will be 3,000 hours. The annual power generation will be 30 billion kwh, far less than the 40,000 electricity demand in 2020. 1% of billion kilowatt-hours. To sum up, although China's energy-saving work in the past 20 years has achieved significant results, the potential for energy conservation is still great. Looking forward to the next 20 years, the efficiency of Chinaâ€™s energy use must at least be doubled again on the basis of the current situation, so as to meet the needs for the full realization of a well-to-do society and a harmonious development of the economy, energy, and the environment. Only by continuing to work hard to improve energy efficiency and vigorously develop clean and renewable energy sources can we meet the grand strategic goals of sustainable development and basic modernization.
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