Abstract From 1949 to 2009, the Chinese economy experienced two 30 years. The theme of the first 30 years is political stability, and the second 30 years is 30 years of reform and opening up. We believe that the average growth of China's economy will be less than 5% in the next 30 years, and financial...
From 1949 to 2009, the Chinese economy experienced two 30 years. The theme of the first 30 years is political stability, and the second 30 years is 30 years of reform and opening up. We believe that the average growth of China's economy will be less than 5% in the next 30 years, and the financial industry will become the main driver of China's economic growth in the third 30 years. We can see that the Chinese economy has entered a period of shock in the short term. Why do we say this? Let's look at HSBC China's PMI index. In 2011, China began to enter three rounds of economic shocks. The basic performance is that the index fell during the first half of the year, and PMI began to rise again in the second half of the year due to increased investment. This is a manifestation of economic shocks.
How will the Chinese economy develop in the future? Let us take a look at the example of Japan. The Japanese economy experienced a rapid development for 20 years from 1970 to 1989. In the past 20 years, Japan’s broad money supply (M2) has doubled its GDP.
Look at China's situation in the last 20 years. The proportion of broad money supply to GDP has increased from 100% in 1993 to 200% in 2013, which is similar to the above-mentioned stage in Japan. Probably speaking, it is very possible that we have developed along the development curve of Japan.
What do we see in Japan? Japan has experienced a lost 20 years, and the Japanese economy has not been well repaired during these 20 years. Many people think that the Chinese economy is different from the Japanese economy. We are in different times, different environments, and different national systems. But even if there are many differences, the core laws of economic development are the same. After the shock, economic development will enter a period of slow growth. Generally, the adjustment period will be at least 10 to 20 years.
What major strategies did Japan adopt during the adjustment period? Japan’s first strategy is to expand domestic demand and change its foreign trade export-oriented type to domestic demand-oriented, but its domestic demand has remained sluggish so far. The second strategy is foreign investment. Japan has shifted from commodity export to capital export. China is also adopting such economic countermeasures.
However, the adjustment cycle may be beyond imagination. In the second 30 years, China's economy will develop rapidly, and will it continue to develop along this line in the future? Our answer is no. We call this the linear growth hypothesis trap.
Why is it a trap? Our judgment is based on the following reasons. Energy consumption is not sustainable, which is the most critical factor. China has taken extensive growth in the past, consuming more than half of the world's important resources and energy. We consume 40% of global coal, 50% of global cement, 60% of global iron ore, and global oil and gas. 70%.
From the point of view of the continued consumption of energy, we can no longer consume 100% of the world's energy. This is a very simple logic. This proves that we will move from linear growth to shock phase, and begin to enter a slow down phase after the shock phase.
According to our optimistic estimates, China's average economic growth in the next 30 years will be less than 5%, which is already a more optimistic estimate. We predict that the policies adopted by the next country will still be interest rate cuts and tax cuts, and the other is to stimulate consumption.
The economy is turbulent and will land anyway. Japan and the United States have adopted different economic strategies. Japan adopts a soft landing strategy, which is more in line with the Asians' feelings, but the results are limited. The United States usually takes a hard landing during the economic crisis. The collapse of bankruptcy and the bankruptcy of bankruptcy have had a great impact on the economy, but in the long run it is beneficial.
At present, there are 10.34 million enterprises in China, 20% of which are losing money, 20% of enterprises are on the verge of loss, relying on various government subsidies, etc. I think the survivability of these enterprises is worrying in the future.
Chinese SMEs are even facing a crisis of survival. According to Japan's experience after 1989, medium-sized enterprises have almost disappeared, but at present, Chinese SMEs are not crisis-conscious.
We believe that at the stage of economic growth and recovery, every point may be a point of buying, but when the economy is volatile, the economy is going down, and the economy is sluggish, every point is a point of selling. For entrepreneurs, at this stage, it is best to return the role, not just to be an "investor."
(The author of Zhang Landing is the vice president of Yanya Investment. The reporter Hu Shilong compiled the speech according to the author's speech at the 2014 financial and economic conference in Yuya.)
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