November's import and export growth rate declines

Affected by high base and weak external demand, China's import and export growth rate in November was far lower than market expectations, and export growth rate hit a 7-month low.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday, China’s exports in November were 1.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; imports were 0.97 trillion yuan, down 6.5%; and the trade surplus expanded by 60%. Analysts pointed out that foreign trade's full-year target is hopeless, China's economic growth pressure is not reduced, and policy easing is expected to continue.

Wang Jun, deputy director of the Consulting and Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, analyzed that imports experienced negative growth in November and the surplus expanded further. There are two main reasons. First, weak domestic demand reveals that the downward pressure on the domestic economy is relatively large; another reason and 11 In the month of the RMB exchange rate trend, crude oil prices fell sharply, driving commodity prices down. China imported a large number of bulk commodities every year, and the price drop was also the reason for the decline in imports.

CICC released a report saying that the slowdown in export growth in November has a certain high base factor. In addition, the number of working days in November this year is one day less than last year. However, from the ring, the growth rate of exports in November has declined, reflecting exports. The kinetic energy deceleration and the slowdown in exports will further increase the pressure on the steady growth of the policy.

It is worth noting that among imported commodities, imports of major bulk commodities increased, and average import prices generally fell. In the first 11 months, China imported 846 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 13.4%, the average import price was 633.6 yuan per ton, down 21.4%; crude oil increased by 278 million tons, an increase of 9%, and the average import price was 4,662 yuan per ton. It fell by 3.8%.

Geographically, in the first 11 months of this year, the total bilateral trade between the mainland and Hong Kong was 2.05 trillion yuan, down 8.9%. Imports and exports to the EU, the US and ASEAN maintained growth. The bilateral trade volume between China and the EU was 3.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9%. The bilateral trade between China and the United States was 3.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%. The bilateral trade volume between China and Japan was 1.75 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.7%.

The General Administration of Customs report also showed that the foreign trade export leading index fell in November compared with October. In November, China’s foreign trade export leading index was 40.8, down 0.9 from October, falling for two consecutive months, indicating that China’s export growth is still facing some pressure at the end of this year.

Wang Jun believes that due to factors such as the downturn in the domestic economy and the weak economic recovery in foreign countries, the annual growth of 6% in foreign trade this year is already an ideal number, and the growth rate of imports and exports next year is likely to be further lowered.

Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shenyin Wanguo, pointed out that the lower than expected import and export indicates that not only is it not good at the end of this year, but it may continue to be under pressure in 2015. It seems that it is difficult to achieve the target growth rate this year. %about.

As one of the "troikas" of the Chinese economy, foreign trade has always been regarded as a barometer of the Chinese economy. In response to the sluggish import, the trade surplus has reached record highs, and the government has intensively introduced measures to strengthen imports. After the State Council executive meeting in September proposed to implement a positive import promotion strategy, promote balance of international payments, and raise the level of openness and cooperation, the General Office of the State Council announced the "Opinions on Strengthening Imports" in November, and proposed eight measures to further strengthen Import of technology, products and services.

"It seems that China's export 'new normal' is at best synchronized with GDP, and it is difficult to have substantial growth. In the future, it is expected that through the promotion of the free trade zone strategy and the 'One Belt, One Road', it will play a leading role in export." Li Huiyong Say.

Analysts also expect that China's import and export data in November will be extremely weak, and will force more stimulus measures to be introduced. The market will look forward to more measures to cut interest rates and lower the deposit reserve ratio.

Chen Yufei, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Asset Management Center, pointed out that in the context of the current decline in foreign exchange holdings and the renewed rise in the expectation of exchange rate depreciation, the central bank is likely to continue to maintain liquidity in the market, taking into account the expected changes in the balance of interest rates between China and the United States. Tight balance pattern of structural loss.

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