Li Keqiang: Adjusting the structure and stabilizing growth has achieved results

The Chinese economy needs to stabilize its growth and adjust its structure. How to balance the two? Especially in the economic downturn, many places have returned to investing in the old road, will this affect the adjustment of the economic structure.

On the evening of September 10, Premier Li Keqiang said in a discussion with the international business community during the 2013 Summer Davos Forum that China’s strategy of choice is to highlight the release of the reform dividend, stimulate market vitality, focus on adjusting the economic structure, and transform the development mode. Combined with steady growth, “These have already seen results.”

In addition, Premier Li Keqiang’s special speech at the opening ceremony of the 7th Summer Davos Forum was highly concerned by overseas. Some foreign experts and media said that Li Keqiang’s speech will further strengthen market participants’ confidence in the Chinese economy.

Fu Peng, chief macroeconomic consultant of Galaxy Futures, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that China can neither completely abandon economic growth to adjust its structure, nor can it simply adjust its economic structure without adjusting its structure. "The problem of China's economy is actually Just looking for a balance point."

Adjusting the structure has achieved results

This year, China's economic growth rate showed a downward trend from quarter to quarter. In the first half of the year, the economy grew by 7.6%, with the first quarter increasing by 7.7% and the second quarter by 7.5%. In the face of the downward pressure on the economy, the country did not introduce a large-scale stimulus plan again, but launched a series of reform measures to establish a reasonable range of economic operations.

In this forum, Li Keqiang said, "When the downward pressure on the economy increases, there is a choice to adjust macroeconomic policies, increase deficits, and loosen the currency. This may have short-term effects, but it may not be beneficial to the future."

His statement of China's economic policy is: "Standing on the overall tone of steady progress, while stabilizing macroeconomic policies, we will stabilize growth, adjust structure, and promote reform."

At the exchange meeting that night, he believed that "when the economic growth slows down, we especially highlight the biggest dividends of the reforms, stimulate the vitality of the market, focus on adjusting the economic structure, transform the development mode, and organically combine them with steady growth. It should be said that it has already seen results."

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics also supports this statement. In July and August, China’s economic recovery is obvious, especially in August, the main economic indicators such as PMI, PPI, industrial added value, electricity consumption, freight volume, etc. There has been a rebound to a good momentum. Li Keqiang said that the Chinese economy has entered the stage of medium and high-speed growth, and the story behind will be more exciting.

Wang Yiming, executive vice president of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, also said at the forum that the economy showed a clear signal of warming and the economic structure showed signs of positive change.

Wang Yiming said that China's economy is in the stage of “shifting”. Last year's GDP growth rate was 7.8%, compared with the growth rate of 13% in 2007, with a substantial slowdown. The economic slowdown has brought certain risks, such as local debt problems, financial system risks (shadow banks), overcapacity risks, etc., which have forced the reform of China's investment system and forced the Chinese economy to undergo structural transformation.

a reform that cannot be less

Regarding the issue of economic structure, Li Keqiang said, "China's economic structure still has problems of imbalance, uncoordinatedness and unsustainability. The optimization of economic structure is our major issue and the potential for development."

The three "one is stable growth, structural adjustment, and reform". However, when the economic structure is adjusted, the role of local governments cannot be ignored. However, at present, in the face of economic downturn, many local governments have restarted the old road of investment, which will inevitably affect the adjustment of the economic structure.

Tan Yaling, dean of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the local government's investment willingness is very strong, and its economic growth is mainly driven by investment. If the direction of local government industrial policy is not clear, "There is no expectation that structural adjustments will lead to the conversion of indicators, and the basic inertia of investment has not changed.

In addition, Tan Yaling believes that the bank's performance appraisal system and the bank's supervision and management ideas have not fundamentally changed. They are mainly risk-minded and profit-oriented, so they mainly invest in government-led projects, so that profit returns are guaranteed.

Earlier, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said that in response to the current economic situation, China will not introduce a large-scale fiscal stimulus policy this year. The important joint of the stimulus policy lies in the control of the currency. This year the central bank continued to implement a “stable monetary policy”.

Li Keqiang also mentioned that in the monetary policy, we will maintain a certain strength. "Even if there is short-term fluctuation in the money market, we will calmly cope with it, and we will not relax or tighten the monetary policy."

Conflict or unravel between structure and growth

Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, admitted in an interview with the media that there are three difficulties in adjusting the industrial structure: “the agricultural foundation is weak, the service industry is relatively lagging, and the manufacturing industry is not strong”. “In the future, we must optimize and upgrade the manufacturing industry and accelerate the development strategy. Sexual emerging industries, the existing traditional industries are deeply integrated in industrialization and informationization, and effective measures are taken to eliminate excess and backward production capacity."

Li Keqiang also expressed his doubts about the adjustment of the industrial structure. He said that it is necessary to continuously adjust the economic structure, especially to develop the service industry. “Because the service industry is the largest container for employment, and the current proportion of China’s service industry is lower than the world average, it is also lower than that of similar developing countries.”

Some experts mentioned that it is not necessarily contradictory to adjust the structure and stabilize the growth. The government has adjusted the previous policy of not adapting to economic growth, reducing unnecessary intervention in the economy, and replacing it with a better institutional environment and stable policy expectations. And to give more space to the private economy, this is promising.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the State Council has vigorously promoted the reform of the administrative management system. More than 200 administrative examination and approval items have been cancelled and decentralized. The purpose is to create a level playing field for all types of enterprises through simple administration and decentralization, in order to stimulate the creation of market players. vitality.

Li Keqiang has repeatedly stated that reform and innovation can release tremendous momentum. "The key to economic system reform is to handle the relationship between the government and the market and society. That is, the market can do what the market can do. If the society can do well, let the society do it. The government manages what it should manage. Let The market plays its due role and stimulates greater vitality so as to form an endogenous driving force for sustained economic development.

In addition, from July 20 to August 20, the State Council intensively introduced policies to support economic development, including promoting information consumption, “broadband China” strategy, tax reduction for small and micro enterprises, and “increased business reform” to expand to the whole country and reform railway investment. Eight policy measures, such as the financing system.

In an interview, Fu Peng said that monetary policy has a tendency, and fiscal policy has a tendency. If the micro is not done well, for example, although many projects are established but funds are invested in real estate, the stimulus policy is invalid.

In his view, the measures introduced by the State Council can be said to be “micro-stimulus”. While using the policy of insurance to ensure economic growth, and at the same time, more accelerate the reform of financial markets, so that the stimulus policy can be implemented. "We are proactive and can put policies on the ground at the micro level of time and space. China's acceleration of structural adjustment on the basis of ensuring that economic growth can provide sufficient employment is the result of actively adjusting the economy."

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