The strengthening of crude oil upstream investment may trigger future production to continue to rise

EIA conducted a survey of 94 oil companies around the world and found that the financial situation of most oil companies has improved significantly. As oil prices have risen, many oil companies' gross profit has begun to increase, and due to cost reduction and efficiency gains, the current Mining costs have fallen to $29/barrel, the lowest cost in nearly a decade. The upstream exploration and development efforts of some companies began to increase, and oil and gas production may continue to rise in the future. These oil companies mainly include 67 in the United States, 7 in Canada, 9 in Europe and 11 other major oil companies. Most of their production is about 50,000-100,000 barrels per day, of which 24 companies have more than 100,000 barrels per day, and 6 companies have more than 500,000 barrels per day. 193113858.png The oil industry is a capital-intensive industry and needs a lot of capital to make a profit. Since 2008, exploration and development capital expenditure has always been a big part of the oil company's expenses. When the crude oil price remained at 100 US dollars/barrel in 2013. Expenditure on exploration and development reached the maximum, almost reaching 500 billion US dollars, while PD (confirmed proven geological reserves) or PUD (unconfirmed proven geological reserves) had the lowest amount of mergers and acquisitions. After all, oil prices were high and mergers and acquisitions were not worthwhile. However, with the sharp fall in oil prices in 2014, exploration and development expenditures have also dropped rapidly. At present, only 200 billion US dollars of investment is almost a drop of more than half of the investment quota. Of course, at the lowest oil prices, many capital buyers are looking for oilfield assets that can be acquired in order to benefit from rising oil prices in the future. However, this year oil prices rose more than expected, and we expect investment to be significantly enhanced. After the oil price plummeted, Russia and Central Asian countries did not reduce the investment in exploration and development. Compared with previous years (nearly ten years), it remained at around 25% (accounting for global investment quota). The United States began to reduce its investment quota to 24% after the fall in oil prices. However, after the oil price rose in 2017, it increased its investment quota, currently accounting for about 33%. The recovery of the shale oil industry is very obvious. The United States, Russia and Central Asia account for more than half of the world's total investment in crude oil. Other countries such as Africa, Latin America and the Middle East have relatively weaker investments, which is also caused by OPEC's production reduction effect. From the current point of view, the countries that control the supply of global crude oil should still be led by the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia, forming a three-pronged pattern. 193113859.png From the current point of view, due to the sharp fall in oil prices in 2014, the operating cash flow of most oil companies has decreased significantly, while capital expenditures have remained low. After the rise in oil prices, corporate cash flow has been greatly improved, but CAPEX has been maintained at a level of less than $300 billion. Insufficient investment in exploration and development may cause the future oil companies' replacement reserves (the ratio of discovered oil reserves to the oil production mined) to be less and less. At present, the recoverable reserves of crude oil are only 80%, but the natural gas can replace the reserves. With 140%, BP has predicted that global gas demand will rapidly exceed crude oil by 2050, which also explains why most oil companies are beginning to focus on developing natural gas resources. Due to EIA data restrictions, we predict that this year's crude oil replacement reserves have exceeded 100%, which is also caused by oil prices rising to 80 US dollars / barrel. 193113860.png Although the oil company's investment has not increased by a breakthrough, but through the Baker Hughes rig report, however, we found that the active rig has been increasing, we analyze this because the company caused by the sale of a large number of assets. Although the oil company has deteriorated its equity financing, the funds obtained through the sale of assets and its own operating cash flow have greatly improved the company's own debt. It can be used to describe the US shale oil company. It should be said that the oil price is higher than At $80/barrel, the US shale oil company can simultaneously use the hedging method to make explosive growth in the seven major shale oil producing areas in the United States. Of course, it depends on whether the seven major producing areas have such a large Oil and gas reserves. If the development investment is continued in the future, it is very likely that the number of rigs will increase explosively. It is very beneficial for the oil company to carry out the hedging according to the current oil price. Most oil companies will cost about US$29 this year. Barrels, with a barrel profit of over $40/barrel, will stimulate investment in the oil and gas sector. For the future oil price trend, if the oil price is maintained at a high level for a long time, it will not benefit the long-term development of the petroleum industry. At present, the oil industry's downturn cycle has passed, only about 3 years. High oil prices are more conducive to the development of new energy industries. It is very difficult for oil prices to exceed 100 US dollars per barrel. As long as the US shale oil industry continues to flourish, oil prices may decline in the second half of the year.
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