Economic growth should focus on technological change

Abstract Since June, the government has been continuously introducing policies to counteract economic slowdown. Especially at the local level, many provinces are taking urgent actions to stabilize growth, creating a sense of urgency. Provinces such as Sichuan, Guangdong, Fujian, Shanxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou have rolled out various measures aimed at boosting the economy. In some cities, the stimulus might even be more aggressive than provincial initiatives. For instance, Sichuan introduced its "16 Measures for Steady Economic Growth," while Chengdu launched its own "22-point Plan." Similarly, Heilongjiang issued a "65-point Policy" with reward-based incentives, showing a more intensive approach. Although the urgency is understandable, it’s important that these emergency measures follow clear rules rather than being arbitrary or routine. Policies should respect economic principles and not just rely on quick fixes.
The core issue behind economic growth lies in understanding what drives it. According to economic theory, growth is driven by four main factors: human capital, natural resources, capital accumulation, and technological innovation. Among these, human capital—especially the quality of labor—is often considered the most critical. While natural resources can support development, countries like Japan have shown that resource scarcity doesn’t hinder growth. Instead, it's technological progress that truly fuels long-term expansion. Capital, including both physical and intangible assets, accumulates over time, but without technological advancement, growth eventually stagnates. This is why long-term policy should focus on fostering innovation. If an economy relies only on increasing labor and capital, it risks overcapacity and eventual decline. As Marx noted, the renewal of fixed capital forms the basis of economic cycles, which are inevitable. Economists like Lucas and Prescott argue that economic fluctuations aren't inherently harmful; rather, the key is to boost productivity. Stabilizing the economy in the short term may actually hurt long-term growth. Therefore, while short-term interventions are necessary, they must not undermine the foundation for future progress. Public policy plays a crucial role in promoting growth. A stable legal framework, strong intellectual property protection, and open markets are essential for innovation. Free competition and market openness encourage entrepreneurship, which is the driving force behind technological change. Centralized systems, no matter how well-intentioned, struggle to foster creativity. The market, not the state, is where real innovation thrives. To support long-term growth, governments should invest in science, technology, and education. They should also create favorable conditions for R&D through tax incentives, funding, and efficient financing mechanisms. At the same time, it's important to avoid overreliance on short-term demand-side policies. Keynesian approaches, while useful in certain contexts, need to be applied carefully. The goal should be to stimulate private investment and restore market confidence, not to replace it. In China, local governments have played a significant role in economic management. However, this has sometimes led to inefficiencies and distortions. The challenge is to ensure that emergency measures don’t reinforce a planned economy model. Rather, they should promote market-driven reforms and reduce bureaucratic interference. As the saying goes, “A three-point remedy” requires precision. If the wrong medicine is used, it could cause more harm than good. The direction of policy matters greatly—without the right approach, even fast action can lead to further missteps.

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