Nai'an said that the European economic crisis has also affected the rapid decline of commodity prices in the international market, especially agricultural products. It is predicted that the international agricultural product price index will fall by 7.8% this year, among which the food category is estimated to decrease by 2.7%, the beverage category is expected to fall by 19.3%, and the raw material category is expected to fall. 14.3%. Affected by external factors, Thailand's export growth has slowed down. It is estimated that the export growth rate for the whole year is only 5.8%, and the export value is US$ 242.184 billion, the lowest increase in the past three years.
In terms of market, Nai'an pointed out that the European market is expected to shrink by 4.5% this year, while last year's growth rate reached 12%. The main export commodities affected are electrical appliances, computers and electrical machinery. Other export markets have also been indirectly affected. For example, the ASEAN market is estimated to grow only 10.3% this year, compared with 21.2% last year; the Chinese market is estimated to grow 8.3%, compared with 27.6% last year; and the Indian market is estimated to grow only 4.4% this year. The increase in the same period last year was 17.9%.
Nai An said that if the annual export growth rate is to achieve the target of 15% this year, the average monthly export value in the second half of the year must exceed 25.147 billion US dollars. Operators are advised to increase the use of tariffs in the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) because the previous usage rate is relatively low, especially ASEAN's FTA tariff preference use rate is only 60%. At the same time, manufacturers are encouraged to increase border trade, as well as commodity positioning and pricing. Because of the economic crisis in many countries, the consumption power of the country's people has declined, and the government should also help manufacturers reduce production costs to increase their competitiveness.
On the other hand, the Thai Shipping Association and the Chulalongkorn University School of Economics jointly published this year's Thailand export situation and export value assessment report. It is predicted that Thailand's exports will grow by 5.9% this year. An important factor is that the floods at the beginning of the year have hindered transportation. Another factor is that the European economy has slowed down in the second half of this year, which may have direct and indirect effects on exporters. It is expected that the European economic crisis will not improve in the next 2-3 years, but the ASEAN market is growing better. If the United States introduces measures to inject capital into the system, it will stimulate an increase in US orders.
According to the report, in terms of market differentiation, the ASEAN export market is estimated to increase by 10.5% this year, the European market is expected to shrink by 2.2%, the US market is estimated to increase by 8.2%, and the Japanese market is estimated to grow by 3%. In consultation with the official and private sector, four ad hoc committees have been set up to study ways to address trade barriers and promote export growth.
The Shipping Association has summarized the recommendations for promoting export development and presented the government's consideration. In view of the financial obstacles, especially the problem of small and medium-sized enterprises being unable to obtain liquidity, the government hopes that the government will help to find loans for L/C credit vouchers and ask the central bank to strengthen exchange rate management. At the same time, I hope that the official government will help alleviate the expenses of exporters for risk guarantees, intensify negotiations with the EU before canceling the GSP tariff in Thailand in 2014, and propose to adjust the Thai customs work system to 24 in reference to other major port cities. hour.
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