Exclusive interpretation of two subtle changes in the Politburo meeting

Abstract Since the beginning of this year, the Central Political Bureau has held separate meetings on April 30 and July 30 to study the economic situation and work. From the news of the two meetings, the high-level judgment on the economy has undergone some changes. An enhanced risk awareness
Since the beginning of this year, the Central Political Bureau has held separate meetings on April 30 and July 30 to study the economic situation and work. From the news of the two meetings, the high-level judgment on the economy has undergone some changes.

An enhanced risk awareness
On July 30, the Central Political Bureau meeting was drafted, and the word “risk” appeared five times. The last meeting only appeared twice. Although this simple statistics does not explain anything, the wording of the manuscript also shows tone and degree. The change on.

In April, the Politburo meeting thought that we should pay attention to preventing and defusing various risks. Today, the meeting focused on the risk escalation, saying that it should “establish crisis awareness and risk management awareness, and timely discover and deal with various contradictions and risks that may occur... ... attaches great importance to preventing and defusing systemic risks." Changes from "attention" to "highly valued and decisive treatment" reflect high-level concerns about current economic situation variables. The stock market volatility that has occurred since June is testing the stability and security of China's financial system. Although the current stock market volatility has not caused serious consequences such as the financial crisis under the strong government intervention, the national team has already In the case of admission, the stock market is still difficult to stabilize, and it is still unknown when the stock market will recover from the crisis and return to normal.

After the stock market crisis, the leaders of the State Council and the supervisory officials of the three-party and the three sessions did not publicly express their views on the stock market and the financial system. Some foreign media reported that there were differences among the high-level officials on whether to vigorously rescue the city. The Politburo meeting emphasized the importance attached. Decisively dealing with risks is inevitably irritating.

Second, emphasize the role of active fiscal policy
In the face of continued downward economic pressure, a consensus has been generated from the temple to the rivers and lakes to stabilize growth with a proactive fiscal policy. The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the importance of fiscal policy, saying that it is necessary to adhere to the "positive fiscal policy unchanged and maintain public spending." The top level emphasizes the constant tone, and if it is understood from the opposite direction, it implies that the active fiscal policy has produced deviations and difficulties. At the meeting of the Standing Committee of the State Council held on June 10, Li Keqiang said: "In some places, the money has been allocated, and it will be delayed. We will legally take back the financial allocations that have been on the account for many years and transfer them to those central areas. The key projects that have been identified are transferred to those who want to be officers and officers!"

On the other hand, the active fiscal policy faced the dilemma of the government's lack of money. In the first half of the year, the fiscal revenue grew by 6.6%, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points from the same period in 2014. In the case of difficulties in fiscal revenue, the senior officials emphasized that the policy remains unchanged. Stabilizing expectations.

If there are financial difficulties, it is necessary to use private capital to do big things: this meeting also pointed out that it is necessary to guide and incite more private funds to increase investment. However, the PPP model also faces many problems in the implementation process. Most of the 30 PPP demonstration projects that the Ministry of Finance pushed forward half a year ago are still not yet real. There are many difficulties in implementing a proactive fiscal policy.

Three stable monetary policy has not changed
Compared with the previous session of the Politburo meeting, “the sound monetary policy should be well grasped and the channel of transmission of monetary policy to the real economy”, the formulation of sound monetary policy has not changed. This meeting pointed out that “stable Monetary policy should be moderate and moderate, maintain reasonable liquidity, and improve the ability and level of service to the real economy.” While referring to monetary policy to be moderate, the top level still expressed concern about liquidity entering the entity.

Four pairs of real economy side gravity upgrade
As a representative of the financial industry, after a few months of booming stock markets, a sudden crisis has made many investments feel the bloody cruelty. In this extraordinarily interesting window, the 30th Politburo meeting referred to the development of the real economy to an unprecedented position, calling it the “starting point for the formulation and implementation of economic policies”.

Liu He, the most famous high-level think tank in China, once said in an article in 2010: "The large amount of liquidity that has been put in need needs to be effectively digested. If there is no support for the expansion of the real economy, the excess liquidity may be another Round asset price bubble."

With the continuous reduction of interest rates by the People's Bank of China and the release of liquidity, A-shares have achieved a big rise in 2015, which has benefited state-owned enterprises. It has helped the reform of state-owned enterprises and helped high-debt SOEs to achieve financing and debt repayment. An important role. At present, the stock market is still frightened after the enthusiasm. Although the top executives are extremely concerned about preventing risks, the draft does not mention the capital market. Whether the statement strongly supported by the real economy will make the market have an opinion needs to be observed. Just in March, Zhou Xiaochuan’s statement that “the capital entered the real stock market is also supporting the real economy” catalyzed the stock market’s surge to some extent. In addition, the Politburo meeting, like last time, still emphasizes that money must serve the real economy. (Author: Erqi)

Related Reading:
Political Bureau: Adhere to the positive fiscal policy, the monetary policy should be adjusted to the appropriate degree (full text)
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work, study and further promote Tibet's economic and social development and long-term stability, and decided to set up a central united front work leading group. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting.

The meeting believes that this year, in the face of the complicated international and domestic environment, we conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, adhere to the general tone of steady progress, strengthen and innovate macroeconomic regulation, comprehensively deepen reforms, and actively respond to various risks and challenges. Has achieved hard-won results. The economic growth in the first half of the year was in line with the expected target. The main economic indicators have rebounded, the structural adjustment has continued to advance, the agricultural situation has continued to improve, and the development vitality has increased. At the same time, the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large. Some enterprises have difficulties in operating, and the structural contradictions of the lack of new economic growth and the weakening of the old power are still outstanding.

The meeting pointed out that China's economy is in a certain stage of "three phases of superposition" and economic development has entered a new normal. It is necessary to maintain strategic strength and persevere to promote the strategic adjustment of the economic structure; it is also necessary to establish a crisis response and risk management awareness, and timely discover and decisively deal with various types of contradictions and risks that may occur. We must persist in using development methods to solve problems in the process of advancement, and truly take the effort to consolidate the foundation and strengthen the atmosphere, and develop the real economy and cultivate outstanding enterprises with core competitiveness as the starting point for formulating and implementing economic policies. We must speed up the transformation of work style, pay more attention to the economic work according to the requirements of "three strictness and three realities", accurately analyze and deeply judge the trend, basic characteristics and various aspects of economic development, improve the quality and operability of policies, and do things in a down-to-earth manner. it is good.

The meeting pointed out that the general requirements for economic work in the second half of the year are: fully implement the spirit of the Party’s 18th and 18th Central Committees, and adhere to the Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thinking of the "Three Represents", and the scientific development concept. Guide, thoroughly implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's series of important speeches, actively adapt to the new normal of economic development, adhere to the general tone of steady progress, adhere to the principle of improving the quality and efficiency of economic development, adhere to macroeconomic policies, and maintain microeconomic policies. The overall idea of ​​social policy should be bottomed out, maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, increase the intensity of directional regulation on the basis of interval control, timely adjust and fine-tune, attach great importance to coping with economic downward pressure, and attach great importance to preventing and defusing systemic risks. Vigorously promote reform and opening up, maintain steady growth, promote reform, adjust structure, benefit the people's livelihood, and comprehensively prevent risks, mobilize the polarity of all parties, pay close attention to work implementation, maintain economic operation in a reasonable range, and promote sustained and healthy economic development and overall social situation. stable.

The meeting stressed that it is necessary to adhere to economic construction as the center, maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, adhere to the active fiscal policy, maintain public expenditure, continue to reduce the burden on enterprises, and guide and incite more private funds to increase investment. Steady monetary policy should be moderate and appropriate, maintain reasonable liquidity, and improve the ability and level of service entities. Adopt a pragmatic and effective approach to guide steady growth in consumption, investment, and exports. We must effectively promote structural adjustment, accelerate the implementation of innovation-driven development strategies, promote mass entrepreneurship, innovation, create a good market environment, and enhance corporate vitality in the survival of the fittest and competition. We must take reform as the fundamental reliance on the adjustment structure, continue to promote decentralization, integrate management, optimize services, and focus on reforming state-owned enterprises, fiscal, taxation, and financial institutions. We must effectively strengthen the protection of people's livelihood, put safeguard employment in a prominent position, attach great importance to doing a good job in poverty alleviation and development, and pay special attention to the basic living security of low-income people, unemployed people, and people with disabilities.

The meeting held that since the fifth session of the Central Tibet Work Forum, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee, under the strong support of the Central State Ministry, the counterpart provinces and the provinces, and the central enterprises, the Tibet Autonomous Region Party Committee and the government united and led the cadres and masses of all ethnic groups in the region. We will do a good job in development and stability, develop rapidly in the economy, make overall progress in social undertakings, improve the living standards of the people, and continue to stabilize the overall situation of society. Further research and deployment of Tibet's economic and social development and long-term stability work is of great significance to ensuring that Tibet and the country achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.

The meeting stressed that to do a good job in Tibet under the new situation, we must uphold the party's strategy of managing Tibet, regard the maintenance of the motherland's reunification and strengthen national unity as the focus and focus of the work, unswervingly carry out the anti-separatist struggle, and unswervingly promote the economy. Social development, unswervingly guarantee and improve people's livelihood, unswervingly promote the exchanges and exchanges between all ethnic groups, rule the Tibet according to law, enrich the people and build Tibet, build Tibet for a long time, unite people's hearts, lay a solid foundation, ensure national security and long-term stability, and ensure sustained economic and social health. Development will ensure the continuous improvement of the material and cultural living standards of all ethnic groups and ensure a good ecological environment.

The meeting stressed that it is necessary to adhere to improving people's livelihood and rallying people's hearts as the starting point and foothold of economic and social development, focusing on infrastructure, characteristic advantageous industries, ecological protection and construction, promoting coordinated economic and social development, moving towards a comprehensive well-off society, and promoting significant improvement in people's livelihood. Towards the prosperity and happiness of the people's lives, promote the construction of ecological security barriers, and move toward comprehensive improvement of the ecology. It is necessary to strengthen the work of national unity, comprehensively implement the basic principles of the party's religious work, develop and strengthen the patriotic united front, and focus on doing a good job of uniting people's hearts and gathering strength. We must persist in closely integrating the central care and national support with the hard work of the cadres and masses of all ethnic groups in Tibet, and increase the efforts of supporting counterparts in Tibet. The cadres and masses of all ethnic groups in Tibet must seize the opportunity and give full play to their enthusiasm, initiative and creativity to create a new situation in Tibet.

The meeting decided to set up a central united front work leading group. The main duties are to carry out research on the central government's major decision-making arrangements and the central government's major guidelines, policies, laws and regulations on the united front, and to guide the party committees (party groups) of all departments and departments in all regions. We will implement the central government's guidelines, policies, laws and regulations on the united front, and supervise and inspect the implementation of the central government's major guidelines, policies, laws and regulations on the united front.

The meeting also studied other matters. (Finish)

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