Top Ten Solar Market Forecasts in 2013

Under the background of the slowdown in global economic growth, the overcapacity, price decline, trade war spoils and the PV market in 2012 have followed suit, and gloom has become the dominant color of this year's solar PV market. However, dark clouds cannot cover the sun. Several research institutions predict that in 2013, there will be many bright spots in the solar industry.

"The photovoltaic industry is going through a painful period. On the one hand, government subsidies have been reduced. On the other hand, the price of products has been declining, and this has made it global," said Ash Sharma, director of solar energy research at IHS Corp., a market research agency, in evaluating the solar market in 2012. Solar cell suppliers are all hurt. At the same time, trade disputes between major trading partners in the solar industry have also shaken the industry. The global economic downturn is an indisputable environment.” But he also pointed out that the solar PV industry was very Some bright spots that may appear. He said: “The installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants is increasing, and technological innovation is continuously increasing the conversion rate of solar energy. The increase in the installed capacity of the solar energy market from China and the United States will offset the vacancy in the weak European market under the influence of the European debt crisis.”

Recently, IHS released the top ten solar market forecasts for 2013. The excerpts are as follows:

1. In 2013, the installed capacity of the global solar photovoltaic market will see a double-digit growth rate, but the annual revenue of the industry will continue to decline, from the estimated 77 billion US dollars in 2012 to 75 billion US dollars. Industry revenue also peaked at $94 billion when installed capacity peaked in 2011. The decrease in installations and the decline in system prices are the main reasons for the continued decline in revenue in the solar photovoltaic industry.

2. The trend of industry restructuring in 2013 will continue. According to IHS statistics, by the end of 2012, there were fewer than 150 companies that remained in the photovoltaic industry upstream in the world, compared with 750 in 2010. Reintegration will put many companies out of the market completely. Some stores of upstream and downstream integrated companies will also be unsustainable. The current situation is that the construction of large-scale solar energy companies with integrated upstream and downstream operations is relatively high, and the utilization rate of many large-scale solar photovoltaic projects is not as expected, which makes further investment more difficult.

3. The price of PV modules will stabilize and recover in the second half of 2013, and the oversupply situation will end. Although the price of crystalline silicon has been declining since March 2011, solar cell prices will reach a steady state in mid-2013. The dynamic changes in the market will help balance supply and demand on a global scale.

4. Although there are few winners, the solar trade war will continue in 2013. In November 2012, six complaints related to solar energy trade were in process. These trade wars involved China, Europe, the United States, and India. IHS Company stated that this cycle of sanctions and retaliation cannot fundamentally solve the problem of overcapacity that plagues the global photovoltaic industry.

5. South Africa and Romania will become the emerging photovoltaic market in 2013. At present, the installation of solar energy in these two countries is minimal, but the planned installed capacity for the next year is several hundred megawatts. The reasons for the growth of solar energy in these two countries are completely different. The growth of photovoltaics in South Africa is mainly due to the tender in 2012; while in Romania, the main driver of growth comes from a program called “Green Certificate”.

6. In 2013, the European PV market may still achieve double-digit returns. The EU's current subsidy program is still valid, so EU countries continue to provide attractive conditions, whether it is for private capital or institutional investment can get a more substantial rate of return. At the same time, in the absence of incentives, Europe's most mature solar photovoltaic market is still trying to achieve parity Internet access.

7, the United States will install more solar power than wind power. 2013 will be an important milestone, and will witness the US's installation of solar PV for the first time exceeding wind power. This is mainly due to the uncertainty of the recent U.S. policy on tax subsidies for wind power production. However, this also reflects the increasing competitiveness of solar photovoltaics as a renewable energy source in the US new energy market.

8. China will become the world's largest solar photovoltaic market. China's total installed capacity in 2013 will exceed 6 GW, which will surpass Germany to become the largest market for solar photovoltaics.

9. Energy storage will change the face of the solar industry. The increase in battery usage will be a powerful complement to photovoltaics. People can apply solar energy for a longer period of time. For example, they can also use the electricity generated by solar photovoltaic power stations during the day to avoid buying electricity from electricity grids at a high price. IHS predicts that the installation of civilian solar PV equipped with batteries will increase significantly next year.

10. New technologies will make equipment suppliers a better day. Technological innovation will reduce the cost of photovoltaic manufacturers, increase revenue, and ultimately stand out from the competition. This is an opportunity for both manufacturers and suppliers to create revenue sources.

Another news:

Recently, the Forbes website also invited industry experts to make predictions on the development of the global solar market in 2013. The United States’ first Roble Wilder Clean Energy Index (ECO), which is the first institution to track the clean energy industry index, proposed that from 2013 to 2013, from polysilicon to solar panels, the cost of these solar hardware will be significantly reduced, but the solar control system The cost of "software," such as installation access, will still hamper the overall cost reduction of the solar industry. He also pointed out that the speed of consolidation of the industry and the increase in subsidies for solar energy in some countries will lead to the emergence of megawatt-level growth.

Rafael Kevin, executive director of U.S. Cleantech Group, believes that the restructuring of the solar photovoltaic industry in 2013 will continue. He said: "For solar photovoltaic power generation, the current sluggish industry, there are too many businesses now, and consolidation and merger are imperative." He also predicted that the US subsidy for residential solar photovoltaic power generation will be reduced, and this is reflected in The "rational return" of the solar photovoltaic market.