The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics' Service Industry Research Center, stood at 50.3% in March 2014, marking a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 12 sub-indices, several showed improvement, including production expectations, new orders, new export orders, purchases, raw material inventory, finished goods inventory, imports, employee levels, and overall production and operational activities. Notably, the import and new export orders indices rose by more than 1 percentage point, signaling positive momentum in foreign trade.
However, some indicators declined, with the purchase price index dropping the most—by 3.3 percentage points. This suggests that businesses remain cautious about market conditions, despite the overall upward trend in the PMI. Analyst Zhang Liqun noted that the PMI's modest rise ended a three-month decline, indicating that economic growth may be stabilizing. He also pointed out that the improvement in new export orders is a positive sign for future trade performance, while the drop in purchase prices reflects ongoing caution among manufacturers.
Looking at the production index, it reached 52.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from February. All enterprise sizes—large, medium, and small—showed production indices above 50%, with readings of 54%, 50.4%, and 50.7% respectively. The new order index was 50.6%, also rising slightly. Large enterprises had a new order index of 51.9%, while medium and small firms remained below 50%, at 48.9% and 47.5% respectively.
The new export orders index climbed by 1.9 percentage points to 50.1%, with large companies leading at 50.9%, while medium and small firms lagged at 47.5% and 49.1%. The backlog of orders index fell to 44.8%, and the finished goods inventory index increased slightly to 48.3%. The purchase volume index rose significantly by 0.9 percentage points to 50.3%, with large enterprises showing the strongest activity.
The import index improved by 2.6 percentage points to 49.1%, though all enterprise sizes still reported figures below 50%. The purchase price index dropped sharply by 3.3 percentage points to 44.4%, reflecting continued cost concerns. The raw material inventory index rose slightly to 47.8%, while the employee index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 48.3%. The supplier delivery time index fell slightly to 49.8%, with large enterprises performing better than smaller ones.
Finally, the expected index for production and operational activities surged to 62.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, showing strong optimism across all enterprise sizes.
**About the Manufacturing PMI Survey**
The PMI is a key economic indicator derived from monthly surveys of purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector. It covers various aspects of procurement, production, and distribution, serving as an early warning system for macroeconomic trends. A reading above 50% indicates expansion, while below 50% signals contraction.
The survey includes 31 major manufacturing industries and has expanded its sample size from 820 to 3,000 since 2013. The PPS sampling method ensures representation based on industry size and economic contribution. Data is collected through direct reporting systems and analyzed using diffusion indices, which are weighted to reflect their economic impact. Seasonal adjustments are applied to ensure accurate interpretation of the results.
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