Abstract On April 11, the National Bureau of Statistics announced today the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Institutions generally predict that due to the increase in pork and vegetable prices, the CPI increase in March will continue to expand and may hit a new high again. March CPI increase or again...
On April 11, the National Bureau of Statistics announced today the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Institutions generally predict that due to the increase in pork and vegetable prices, the CPI increase in March will continue to expand and may hit a new high again. March CPI increase or new high
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in February this year, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate returned to the “2 eraâ€, also hitting a new high since July 2014.
For the upcoming March CPI, the reporter noted that the current market generally expects that due to the increase in pork and vegetable prices, the CPI increase will continue to expand in March, and is expected to hit a new high again.
After the Spring Festival, the prices of pork and vegetables did not fall, but there was a large increase. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture, in the 12th week of 2016 (March 21-27, 2016), the average weekly price of pork was 25.42 yuan per kilogram, up 1.9% from the previous month. The increase was 0.5 points higher than last week and 49.4% higher than the same period last year.
Shen Danyang, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, revealed at a regular press conference on the 7th that the price of vegetables has also risen to a certain extent recently, especially the price of leafy vegetables, melons, and onions and garlic has increased significantly, mainly due to weather factors. influences.
Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, told the China News Network that the price of pork and vegetables continued to rise in March, and the hikes factor rose. The overall judgment of March CPI may be between 2.3% and 2.7%, with a median value. 2.5%.
China Merchants Securities, Haitong Securities, UBS China and other institutions also forecast a 3.5% year-on-year increase in CPI in March; Galaxy Securities and other institutions have a slightly higher forecast of 2.8%.
Pork prices are unlikely to skyrocket
Looking into the future price trend, will pork prices continue to rise or skyrocket, thus increasing the pressure on price inflation? The reporter of Chinanews.com noted that for the price of pork, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce also voiced at the same time, stressing that the possibility of a surge in pork prices is unlikely.
Ye Haoqin, spokesman of the Ministry of Agriculture, said at a news conference on the 7th that the price of live pigs has continued to rise in the near future. In general, it is a rebound in the long-term downturn in the previous three years, which is recoverable and compensatory. Because the breeding benefits are good, the enthusiasm of the scale farmer's replenishment will begin to recover, which will help increase the supply of pork in the later period, and there will be no out-of-stock stalls. Although the price of pork is running at a high level, it may have to be maintained for a while, but with the gradual increase in the slaughter of pigs, the price of pork will gradually stabilize, and the possibility of skyrocketing is small.
Shen Danyang also said on the 7th that the main reason for the increase in pig prices this time is the reduction of pig supply, and the main reason for the decrease in supply is due to the long-term loss of pig farming in the early stage. Therefore, the price increase can also be regarded as a self-repair of the pig market. behavior. As the expected benefits of raising pigs become better, the farmers will expand the column and the pigs will gradually increase in the later stage, and the market supply will tend to be balanced. It is expected that the price of live pigs will remain high in 2016, but the possibility of skyrocketing is not high.
Zhu Baoliang, director of the forecasting department of the National Information Center, told the reporter of Zhongxin.com that the current price level is still at a low level. Except for the price fluctuations of some foods such as pork and vegetables, the prices of other goods and services are not rising sharply. Therefore, the overall price is not There will be too much upward pressure, and it is expected that the CPI increase will not exceed 3%.
Galaxy Securities' research report also pointed out that vegetable prices are expected to fall as the weather warms down. Commodities such as oil and corn are still at low levels, and pigs are fast-filled. The price level in the second half of the year is much lower than that in the first half. The possibility that the CPI level will exceed 3% this year is still very small, and there is still room for monetary policy, but large-scale easing is not desirable.
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