From the perspective of sub-indices, the new orders index and the new export order index continued to decline significantly, indicating that insufficient demand is still an important reason for restricting the recovery of manufacturing. The output index also continued to fall due to the continued decline in demand. The rate of decline in input prices has shrunk slightly, the ex-factory price has continued to accelerate, and inflationary pressures remain unclear. The recent weakening of commodity prices will reduce the enthusiasm of enterprises to replenish stocks, and enterprises will not be willing to replenish stocks. It is worth noting that the improved employment index appeared in July, which declined in August, or indicates that the company's attitude towards reducing employees has changed.
He Fan, chief economist and head of research department at Caixin Think Tank, believes that the initial value of the PMI in the manufacturing industry in August was lower than that of the previous month, reflecting that the current economy is still in the bottoming stage. However, from a holistic perspective, systemic risks are still within the controllable range and the economic structure continues to be optimized.
Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of industrial added value, which is dominated by manufacturing, has fluctuated, but the growth rate of the service industry has been relatively stable, and the growth rate of consumption has risen steadily. At the same time, the internal division of the manufacturing industry is severely divided, and the overcapacity industry has slowed down markedly, and emerging industries have shown good growth momentum. These all show that the driving force of China's economic growth is switching.
At present, the pressure of steady growth is still relatively large, and the future economy may start to rebound after a period of squatting at the bottom. The reasons include: the loosening of monetary policy such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the previous period is still continuing; the infrastructure construction projects and industrial upgrading project packages launched in the first half of the year will be gradually implemented, and the effect of investment will be increasingly apparent; plus August On the 11th, the RMB exchange rate middle price quotation mechanism was adjusted, and the renminbi showed a certain depreciation, which would play a certain supporting role for exports.
He Fan believes that in order to achieve the full-year growth target, the government should ensure macro stability by fine-tuning fiscal and monetary policies, while accelerating structural reforms, leading market confidence and releasing the long-term vitality of economic growth.
The initial value of Caixin PMI is based on 85%-90% of the total sample size of the monthly PMI survey. In August, Caixin China PMI final value and related index will be announced on September 1, and the final value of Caixin China's service industry PMI will also be announced.
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