Copper prices will rise because the development of minerals is once again hindered, making copper a better investment producer than aluminum, and aluminum may fall as output increases, said Alberto Arias, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group. Arias raised the 2005 copper forecast yesterday. The price was $1.43 per pound, which was originally $1.35, lowering the forecast price of aluminum, which fell to 82 cents from 85 pounds per pound. The average price of aluminum next year is 78 cents per pound. Below the earlier forecast of 86 cents per pound, this was mainly due to the increase in alumina production. A white powder smelted from bauxite was used to produce primary aluminum. We are closer to Canada and Latin America. With more evidence, new copper and nickel mines may take more time to develop, Arias and three other Goldman Sachs analysts said in an e-mail. On the other hand, alumina development may accelerate, making China's aluminum smelting capacity has been boosted. In the past three years, the price of copper, a raw material for cable manufacturing, has more than doubled. China is currently the world’s largest copper consumer. The demand from the United States is also very important. LME hit a record high. According to the Metal Bulletin report, two tons of alumina can be smelted into one ton of primary aluminum. China Arias is an analyst at Goldman Sachs in New York. He joined Goldman Sachs Bank in 1998 and has worked as a senior analyst for five years. He is a metal and mining analyst based on the former team, and he has provided investment forecasts for institutional investors in Latin America. The inquiry telephone will not answer and comment on the market. Goldman Sachs economists expect China's economic growth will exceed 8.8% this year. Arias said that China’s industrial production increased by 16.6% in May, reaching a record The 570 billion yuan (69 billion U.S. dollars) growth in April was also as high as 16%. We have increased the growth forecast for China's copper demand, taking into account China's newer leading indicators. Arias said. `The urbanization of China, the trend of industrial students will continue to lead to alarming positive demand. China's growth in roads, factories and other fixed assets owners reached 28.2% year-on-year, 26.5% in April, the National Bureau of Statistics The report shows. Supply Challenges Investors began to pay attention to the long-term challenges of copper supply over the next five years. Arias stated that "new mining developments for some metals may not be converted into production as quickly as the previous cycle, because of more stringent access procedures, political winds, technical challenges and severe capital expenditure flooding." Shares of the big copper producer Phelps Dodge dropped by $1.49, or 1.6%, to $92.50 on the New York Stock Exchange. This year it has fallen by 6.5% on the basis of a 30% increase in 2004. The threat of further aluminum supply increases. Because the expansion of alumina production capacity around the world is accelerating, Arias said that alumina production is rising because producers are trying to finance people at high prices. The world’s third largest mining company is Rio Tinto Group, and the second largest alumina in the world. The manufacturer's Coalco alumina smelter in Queensland, Australia, began production in November and invested US$1.3 billion in the development of its Gove alumina smelter. Production increase China's aluminum production increased by 17% to 3 million tons in the first five months, The government adopted measures to reduce production, Arias said, China is still a threat, Arias said. Industry news estimates that China has 2 million tons of idle Smelting capacity, some of which will resume production in the next few years when raw materials (aluminum oxide and electricity) are likely to be obtained, the export of primary aluminum in the first five months of this year has increased six-fold to 393,691 tons, only in the same period of last year. 66,000 tons, VAT rebates are taken, and 5% of the export tax is levied. Alcan said yesterday that a French aluminum factory was closed and 98 workers were unemployed because of reduced competition for electronic components. . The closure of the supply of alumina to Western production will liberate the supply of alumina, which will lead to an increase in China’s capacity utilization rate, while China’s productivity is limited by the supply of alumina, Arias said. Aluminum inventories rose by 7.5% in May to a four-year high, as output in Asia and Latin America rose, according to newer data from the International Aluminum Association. Alcan's share price in Montreal fell 1.7 cents to 36.78 Canadian dollars. At 30%, Alcoa's shares in Pittsburgh fell 0.7% to $26.13, a drop of 17% this year.
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