According to the import and export data for May, China's imports and exports fell for the seventh consecutive month, and the decline continued to widen. In May, exports fell by 26.40%, and imports fell by 25.2%. The decline was 3.8 and 2.2 percentage points higher than that in April, both exceeding market expectations.
Analysts pointed out that although the data showed that the import and export situation continued to bottom out, due to factors such as the base factor, partial stabilization of external demand and policy support, the decline in exports is expected to narrow from next month, and the positive growth of exports in the fourth quarter is large. Probability event.
Quarterly factors have a big impact
Some analysts pointed out that the reason for the sharp decline in imports and exports in May was mainly due to seasonal factors. In May, there was a Dragon Boat Festival after Labor Day, and the working day was reduced by 2 compared with the same period last year. In fact, after the seasonal adjustment of the General Administration of Customs, exports and imports in the month of May fell by 22.8% and 17.7% respectively. As a result, the decline in imports has further narrowed, and the decline in exports has remained basically the same as in April.
The General Administration of Customs said that it will adjust the growth rate of foreign trade import and export, and treat Monday, Tuesday, Saturday, Sunday and legal holidays as eight “seasons†and calculate the “seasonal index†of each “seasonâ€. Then, according to the different "seasons" in the comparison period, the "seasonal index" is used to calculate the "seasonal adjustment coefficient", and the monthly growth rate of the monthly intake and the export is adjusted to obtain the seasonally adjusted growth rate.
Dong Xianan, a macro analyst at Southwest Securities, believes that due to the base problem, the decline in exports is expected to narrow from next month, and the high probability of the fourth quarter is positive.
The ring data further shows that the actual performance of imports and exports in May is acceptable. After seasonal adjustment, imports, exports and imports in May increased by 2.1%, 0.2% and 4.4% respectively in April.
Multiple benefits will work
In addition to the historical data that are still acceptable, a number of factors are good for future Chinese exports. First, there are signs of recovery in the world's major economies, and the most critical external demand for China's exports is expected to pick up. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently released data showing that most of the world's largest economies are about to emerge from recession. The overall indicators from developed countries such as the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, the United States, Mexico and Japan show that the economy is improving.
Li Jing, chairman of JPMorgan China's securities market, pointed out that the US market, which accounts for 18% of China's export share, showed some signs of recovery. The American Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 54.9 in May, a sharp rebound from April's 40.8.
Recently, China’s exports to the United States are significantly better than those for Europe and Japan. Exports to the United States in March and April were US$16.44 billion and US$17.18 billion, respectively. They rose for the second consecutive month. Exports to the US in May were 16.71 billion US dollars, which also maintained a relatively stable trend.
Zhang Hanya, vice president of the China Investment Association, believes that due to the cyclical factors of foreign trade orders, the import and export situation usually lags behind for 3-6 months. As the US economy gradually bottoms out, orders have risen since the first quarter of this year. However, it has not yet been reflected in the current data, "especially the export of household goods, there have been signs of improvement, better than investment products such as machinery and equipment, electronic products."
In addition, in terms of macroeconomic policies, stable external demand has returned to the central work focus. On May 27, the State Council executive meeting adopted six measures to further stabilize external demand. From June 1st, China once again raised the export tax rebate rate for some products, involving more than 2,600 10-digit tax number products for domestic superior products, labor-intensive products, high-tech products and deep-processed products. At the same time, it will vigorously promote the coverage of policy export credit insurance.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange also said that in the near future, it will prepare to introduce specific measures for the reform of the import and export collection and payment of foreign exchange, and will study the specific policies for export and foreign exchange to stay abroad, and try to create preferential facilities for foreign trade enterprises.
Some analysts expect that the foreign trade situation in the second quarter will still maintain a negative growth of more than 20%, but the decline in the third quarter will be significantly narrowed. Li Huiyong, a macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, expects that the decline in exports in the fourth quarter will fall to less than 5%, and is expected to achieve positive growth.
The trade surplus will decrease throughout the year
According to customs data, China’s accumulated trade surplus in the first five months of this year was 88.79 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 15.7% over the same period of last year and a net increase of 12.05 billion U.S. dollars.
Since the beginning of this year, China’s trade surplus has continued to increase. From January to April, the trade surplus in the month was 39.11 billion US dollars, 4.84 billion US dollars, 18.56 billion US dollars and 13.14 billion US dollars.
Analysts pointed out that the sustained growth of the trade surplus is related to the decline in imports more than the decline in exports. However, in the month of May, due to the sharp increase in the import of raw materials, the year-on-year decline in imports was significantly narrowed. Among them, copper imports hit a record high for the fourth consecutive month in May; crude oil imports reached the second highest level in history, and this year's second consecutive month of year-on-year growth.
Compared with the single-month surplus of 340 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter of last year, the current growth rate of foreign trade surplus has narrowed significantly. Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Affairs of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomics Institute, predicts that the annual surplus may be reduced by $500 to $100 billion from the previous year.
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