Last week, Lun’s aluminum price continued to fall, and the impact of the decline in copper prices fell below the support of 2700 US dollars, the lower back to 2535 US dollars. Open interest has continued to increase, with a total increase of about 20,000 hands last week. Inventory did not change much and remained at about 770,000 tons. Spot discounts also maintained at a steady level of $30. The three-month aluminum closed at 2,645 U.S. dollars, which was a decrease of 143 U.S. dollars from the same period in the previous week.
Shanghai aluminum futures prices oscillated lower last week. The bulls took the initiative to close their positions to lower the price of futures in the absence of a stable aluminum price. The total holdings decreased from 231,250 lots to 208,050 lots. Due to the reluctance of manufacturers and traders to repay their goods, spot prices remained stable, and their fall rate was significantly lower than the fall in futures prices. It can be expected that Shanghai Aluminum futures price will be strongly supported at the front line of 20,000 yuan. After all, this zone is already near the aluminum factory's production cost line, and the further decline is limited. However, with the fall in the price of the period, the recent contract lightening is less, and occasionally accompanied by some Masukura, and thus also stabilize the price above 20,000 yuan. The main August contract closed at 2,1080 yuan, a decrease of 890 yuan from the same period the previous week.
Macroeconomic environment turmoil
The recent global macroeconomic turmoil has made prices relatively weak. As the U.S. Treasury Secretary resigned at the end of May, the financial policy of the next minister still has certain uncertainty; whether the Fed’s new chairman’s policy of raising interest rates is over is not clear, and most investors leave the commodity futures market. On the whole, the panic in the market has caused aluminum prices to fall further.
Alumina port prices further decline slightly
As China's new alumina production capacity is huge, there is widespread concern in the international market that alumina prices will fall, prompting the price of alumina to fall back in the short term. Last week, alumina prices further dropped to 6,100 yuan, which is not conducive to aluminum prices, but its maintenance at more than 6,000 yuan will have a strong support for Shanghai aluminum prices.
Deeper consumer season
The large number of idle production capacity in China has been opposed to the international market due to the reduction of production in developed countries due to the expiration of the electricity contract, which further reduced the domestic and foreign exchange rates.
At present, domestic aluminum prices have been in the area of ​​the cost line. The stagnation of consumption in the previous period due to price increases is expected to start later, which will support domestic aluminum prices. At the same time, the active involvement of funds will continue to promote Lum Al. The fall in aluminum prices last week after the previous rise has attracted a lot of capital backflow, which in turn leads us to believe that prices will be supported and stable.
From the technical graphics point of view, the aluminum price is continuing to fall and seek support. Shanghai Aluminum's technical trend is also falling back to find support, but the price has fallen back to the platform before the previous upswing started, and the room for further decline is very limited.
It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range of oscillation in the short term and investors are advised to wait and see.
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