Photovoltaic industry in 2012

In February 2012, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promulgated the "12th Five-Year Development Plan for Solar Photovoltaic Industry"

The layout of polysilicon production capacity and production has obvious regional characteristics. Each region has carried out polysilicon production relying on its own advantages. However, at present, the polysilicon industry is in an adjustment stage. Optimizing production capacity and adjusting the structure is an important issue facing the industry. The relevant national departments and local governments should strengthen the guidance of polysilicon companies, further optimize the layout of production capacity, and protect the long-term sustainable development of the polycrystalline silicon industry.

Judging from the overall development status of the polysilicon industry, the polysilicon industry entry standards that were promulgated and implemented in 2010 are somewhat out of date, and many rules should be revised and improved as soon as possible. Relevant departments should upgrade polysilicon companies' entry standards as soon as possible and strictly implement project approval procedures in order to eliminate backward production capacity and excess production capacity from the source.

In March 2012, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the preliminary results of anti-subsidy measures for PV in China. The US Department of Commerce’s “Double Anti” survey will have a very negative impact on the Chinese PV industry. At present, there are many problems in China's photovoltaic industry: In the past two years, the photovoltaic industry has entered a period of rapid development, and a large number of photovoltaic companies have risen. As a result, the capacity development rate has exceeded the market demand severely, and the company’s profits have been substantially lost, and the photovoltaic structure has become chaotic; at the same time, internal management Frequent and frequent management problems, serious personnel losses, and the ability of enterprises to sustainably develop are greatly constrained.

At this time, the United States conducted a "double counter" investigation on China's photovoltaic industry and imposed a heavy tax on the import of photovoltaic products from the United States. This will exacerbate the plight of Chinese PV companies. Excess production capacity will not be digested, and long-term development strategies will be affected. The intention of the U.S. Department of Commerce is very clear: First, the economic recovery in the United States has slowed down and the unemployment rate remains high. The U.S. government’s trade protection policy hopes to drive industrial recovery through manufacturing, which will drive the economy out of the shadows.

Second, this year is the year of the US election. The US party struggles are becoming more and more intense. The US government hopes to shift the attention of the domestic public through issues such as the Sino-US trade war, masking the problems of low domestic employment rate, economic stagnation, and prominent educational problems, and then enhancing The influence of political parties. At the same time, the United States also conducted a trade survey of China's auto parts and accessories industry in the United States, deliberately creating trade frictions and boycotting Chinese exports.

In July 2012, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated the countermeasures against US polysilicon Shuanghe counter investigations. It should adhere to the principle of “staying right, being well-founded, and having a good day” and “doing something wrong”.

On the one hand, there are some disadvantages: from the perspective of domestic polysilicon import structure, the United States accounts for 41%, South Korea 25%, Germany 20%, Taiwan 9%, Japan 4%, other regions 1%, Europe and the United States Polysilicon imports account for more than 60% of China's total imports of polysilicon. At present, China's imports of polysilicon do not have a clear, large-scale downward trend. If rush to Europe and the United States polysilicon anti-dumping investigation is bound to harm the core interests of many domestic companies. "Too many enemies" is very unfavorable to the long-term development of the domestic photovoltaic industry.

On the other hand, there are some things: Trade protection is a "double-lose" choice, and erroneous actions in Europe and the United States seriously hurt the core interests of both parties. If the Ministry of Commerce abandons the “counterattack” right is an irresponsible performance for domestic photovoltaic companies, it is wise to take countermeasures in due course. At present, Sino-Japanese relations have become increasingly heated and the two sides have faced a strong confrontation in political, military, economic, and diplomatic affairs. The Ministry of Commerce should take the opportunity to issue anti-dumping investigations to see Japan's photovoltaic polysilicon companies "color". After all, 4% of imports will not cause serious impact on domestic polysilicon companies. Instead, they will show the determination of the nationwide "preservation of fishing".

In July 2012, the National Energy Administration promulgated the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Solar Power Generation”

Photovoltaic companies have difficulties in internal and external affairs. Non-substantial measures cannot win the opportunity for enterprises to breathe. If the photovoltaic giant's survival problem is difficult to solve, it is of no significance to talk about the bright future of the photovoltaic industry. Relevant government departments and local governments should start from the key leading enterprises' assistants and carefully study the key issues faced by photovoltaic companies, and use their means of funding, equity participation, restructuring, etc., to help photovoltaic companies get rid of difficulties, leaving a star-studded atmosphere for the future.

The construction of photovoltaic power plants is a key measure for photovoltaic companies to open up the domestic market and is an important direction for the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry in the future. However, due to capital, technology, supporting measures, local policies and other factors, China is not suitable for large-scale distributed photovoltaic power generation at this stage. Local governments should change their way of thinking as soon as possible, and must not take the path of "too much capacity surplus tomorrow to solve today's overcapacity problem".

In July 2012, the list of China's top 500 solar PV companies suffered major losses. The main reason for the serious losses of PV companies was due to the company itself, especially the lack of strict management mechanisms and strategic adjustment capabilities within the company. In response to the declining macroeconomic situation, most companies have not only reduced investment in photovoltaic projects, but have also accelerated the pace of occupying the world's photovoltaic market. Photovoltaic markets in the United States, Japan, and other countries have seen frequent occurrence of Chinese photovoltaic companies, and companies are only seeking scale and quality management. The expansion method has caused a fatal blow to the profitability of the company. Photovoltaic industry's "grandchildren" instantly faded into a "bottom frog" of net profits. Companies lack the capacity for sustainable development. In September 2012, the European Commission launched an anti-dumping investigation against China's photovoltaic cells. Suddenly, Germany sang red-faced, the European Union played a white face, and China's PV became a “doll”.

First of all, "comforting younger brothers" is a top priority. Chinese companies rely on inexpensive high-quality photovoltaic products to enter the European Union and their market share is increasing day by day. German PV companies are "injured." Star photovoltaic giants go bankrupt. Most SMEs are on the brink of failing to extricate themselves. "German" hates Chinese PV companies. The bones." Although Germany's new energy development strategy is tilted toward offshore wind power, it is "necessary" to appease domestic companies.

Second, the debt crisis has forced the EU to "sell." The European debt crisis has periodicity and inevitability. How to mitigate its adverse impact on the coalition is an urgent task for the EU government. German leaders and EU officials know this very well. The United States has "a clear-sighted position" on the European debt issue. Japan has long since taken care of it. Only China is a "potential friend." At present, the Chinese government is relatively indecisive and does not "do its utmost to help the EU get out of difficulty." One song is to "spur" the Chinese government and force it to give EU leaders the "assistance" that they expect.

Once again, "maintaining stability" is the EU's top priority. The European debt crisis and the protracted problem of the euro will lead to a collective “positive” of employment, manufacturing index, and GDP growth. The people of the European Union complained that the voice of “discord” was coming and going, and the “Qiu De” sentiment in Greece, Spain, Italy and other countries continued to breed. The stimulus policies adopted by the governments of various countries did not achieve the expected results. The German star machinery giant was acquired by China. The Queen’s celebration and the Olympic Games did not bring any positive impact on the economy. The EU will “point the finger” at China’s PV to help transfer people’s attention and maintain the stability of the EU (blog, Weibo).

Finally, "crossing the river to remove the bridge" is a common trick in the EU. China is the largest "trade partner" of the European Union's photovoltaic industry. Chinese photovoltaic companies have wasted resources and polluted the environment. The "kidnapping" of the government has worked hard to "nurture" the EU photovoltaic industry. The European Union's decision to make "double losses" is tantamount to "crossing the river to remove the bridge". It can not only ease internal conflicts, but also can attack China's photovoltaic companies. It is its usual practice to "get off the bucks".

In October 2012, the State Grid Corporation of China formally issued the "Opinions on Doing a Good Job of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Grid-connected Services"

Electricity price policy is the primary policy affecting photovoltaic power plants. The domestic photovoltaic power plants are currently in the early stage of development. The degree of commercial operation is not high, the profitability is not satisfactory, and the high cost of power generation has become a chronic disease that restricts the development of the photovoltaic industry. Large-scale photovoltaic power plants and distributed photovoltaic power plants in the northwest region have little profitability, and the national relevant departments will implement the power price policy as soon as possible, which will bring substantial positive news to the photovoltaic giants.

On-grid policies are currently the most intensely debated policies. If PV power plants want to convert profitability into actual economic benefits, they still need to be protected by grid-connected policies. However, grid-connected policies have been unable to implement them. The grid company's “blank check” has not been honored and photovoltaic giants involved in PV power plants are suffering. Words. This has greatly weakened the enthusiasm of photovoltaic companies in building photovoltaic power plants, which in turn has inhibited the release of domestic PV market capacity.

In November 2012, China’s Ministry of Commerce launched a Sino-European trade war against the EU’s polysilicon dual anti-survey. The sooner it is opened, the better it will be for China.

First, the EU's "cutting off" of China's solar cells is purely a trade protection policy, and it is a typical "double-loss" decision. This has a negative impact on the long-term development of the photovoltaic industry in China and in the EU. At present, China's photovoltaic industry is in a critical period, facing a large-scale reshuffle crisis at any time, and mergers and reorganizations are inevitable. The EU has gained a lot of money and has a rogue. This kind of behavior has the same meaning as the United States. The timely crackdown on this "bad habit" has a very positive effect on purifying the international economic and trade environment.

Second, the government "proclaimed" has no substantive effect, and the enterprise "**" is tantamount to "outside the boots." At present, Sino-Japanese relations are in a sensitive period. Many people think that there are too many wars or enemies against the EU, which greatly detracts from our country’s overall strength and it is difficult to receive the desired results. However, the degree of dependence on trade between China and Europe is very high. It is very difficult for both sides to completely rip off the cheeks and “do not make contact with each other”. Local and targeted countermeasures are very necessary. If China does not fight back, "double loss" will inevitably become "single lose."

Third, it is more advantageous to China when the European Union “maintains stability”. The debt crisis is a key issue faced by the EU. It is cyclical and inevitable. It is a wise move of the Chinese government to seize on European debt. The EU’s affordability is not as strong as we think. It is very timely to start the “double counter” investigation of polysilicon in the EU as soon as possible. The blind patience will only allow domestic companies to fall into a more unfavorable position in the international market, and it is only wise to take the initiative.

In November 2012, the Anti-Dumping Agency of India announced the anti-dumping investigation of solar cells from mainland China, Chinese Taipei, Malaysia, and the United States. India has long been “ready to do” with Chinese PV products and is “double-minded, known to the world”.

First, India "follows" the addiction. India’s move is a measure taken after the United States and the European Union have made their choice. There is no “personal style” and it is purely “follow-up” behavior. India has few independent decision-making abilities. It has obvious "dependency" tendencies in politics, economy, military affairs, and diplomacy. It has never done a complete, detailed and feasible planning of the new energy industry. Photovoltaic industry The development situation is not flattering.

Second, India's move is suspected of "self-mutilation." India's photovoltaic industry is still in its early stages of development. The industrial chain is extremely incomplete. Only in the fields of photovoltaic modules and solar cells, etc., it has achieved a slight improvement. Other areas are nearing blankness. The recent Indian electricity accident has sounded the alarm for the Indian power industry. How to improve the power supply capacity and safeguard the national energy security are top priorities. At this moment, taking steps to “kill” the photovoltaic industry, India’s move is stupid.

Third, domestic photovoltaic companies "smile, absolutely not pumping." Outside the market and outside the technology are the top challenges faced by Chinese PV companies. However, China's overseas PV market is mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States, and India’s market share is small and small. Even if India "double reverse" China's photovoltaic products, the negative impact of the domestic photovoltaic industry will be negligible. At the same time, China has no “handle” in India’s political, economic, military, and diplomatic fields. India’s domestic photovoltaic companies and experts can sit back and relax.

The specialization of China's PV future is the main direction for the development of the photovoltaic industry: Domestic PV companies have paid too much attention to large-scale and quantitative development in the early stage, blind expansion, and excessive launches of photovoltaic projects are common occurrences, resulting in serious technical development and equipment manufacturing. Lagging, "big but not strong" has become the proud capital of photovoltaic giants, but the company's core competitiveness has not been the slightest improvement. What is more, some photovoltaic giants have adopted diversified operations and over-completed the industrial chain, which has exerted enormous pressure on corporate capital, talent, management, and marketing. Diversification not only failed to bring expected profits, but also caused the company to lose money. The quagmire cannot extricate itself.

The greatest advantage of professional management is that it will provide tremendous help to the company's scientific and technological R&D, capital use, and strategic decision-making. The company will invest more funds and management in its main business, and its core competitiveness is expected to be improved. This is the trend of the international industrial division of labor, and is also a requirement of some workers in the industry. The domestic photovoltaic giants should recognize the situation and make preparations as soon as possible. “Slimming” is just a beginning, not an end, and companies’ capabilities and experience in professional management should also be matched.