The central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar continued to fall yesterday, at 6.4078, which fell below the market psychological barrier of “6.4†and continued to hit a three-month low.
In terms of spot exchange rate, in the onshore market, the reference exchange rate from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center showed that the RMB 10:00 am against the US dollar on the spot exchange rate was reported at 6.4177, and then slightly down, basically stable around 6.418 throughout the day, late Reported at 6.4182 at 16:00.
At the same time, in the offshore market, the spot exchange rate of RMB opened lower at 6.4731, and it fluctuated downward in early trading, hitting a low of 6.4928. After the afternoon, it continued to go down. The spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was as low as 6.4952, and a wave of rapid upward movement in the afternoon. The exchange rate rose to 6.4766 and oscillated nearly 200 basis points. The renminbi continued to fall in the shock and was reported at around 6.4854.
In the onshore and offshore markets, the difference between the RMB and the US dollar spot exchange rate continued to expand. From the early morning, the difference was about 600 basis points, and the intraday expansion gradually increased by nearly 800 basis points. At the end of the session, the onshore and offshore market exchanges were still near 700 basis points.
Traders believe that the renminbi in the offshore market has weakened significantly, and the continuous breakthrough of the 6.48, 6.49 and other barriers may mean the beginning of an orderly devaluation of the renminbi. It is expected that under the pressure of appreciation of the US dollar, the depreciation of the RMB in the onshore market will not change.
Moreover, the expansion of the exchange gap between the shore and the offshore has also aggravated the arbitrage disk, which pushed up the depreciation pressure of the onshore RMB. “Those who originally expected the dollar adjustment are expected to change, and the volume of transactions in the single direction has increased significantly,†said the trader.
In addition, the import and export data released yesterday also cast a shadow over the trend of the renminbi. “In the morning, the middle price continued to fall. The import and export data in November was not good. The renminbi in the market was full of vacant atmosphere and the trading volume was significantly enlarged.â€
The latest data shows that in November, exports fell by 6.8% in November, similar to the 6.9% decline in October, but worse than market expectations of a 5.0% decline. Exports did not rebound in November, reflecting that external demand remained weak.
A report released yesterday by the UBS Wealth Management Investment Director's Office said that the sharp depreciation of the renminbi is a major tail risk facing Asian currencies, but it is unlikely to happen. In the next six months, the Asia-Pacific currency is likely to fall by 5% against the US dollar, and investors should hedge this risk.
China will also release a series of macroeconomic data this Saturday, including retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment, market expectations, which will also reflect weak economic fundamentals. Some people believe that the Chinese economy is weak, and the US is expected to start a rate hike cycle. The strength of the US dollar will continue, which will put the RMB under certain depreciation pressure.
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