Abstract The report of the 2016 Nikkei Nonferrous Metals Industry Monthly Climate Index, jointly prepared by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China Economic Trend Research Institute of Economic Daily, and China Economic Climate Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, was recently released. The report shows that in mid-November...
The November 2016 NGC Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Monthly Prosperity Index Report, jointly prepared by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Economic Daily China Economic Trends Research Institute, and China National Economic Statistics Monitoring Center, was recently released. The report shows that the non-ferrous metal industry prosperity index in November was 29.8, up 1.5 points from the previous month; the leading index was 84.4, an increase of 1.3 points from the previous month. “Since this year, the leading index and the prosperity index of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry have both rebounded. Although they are still in the 'cold cold' range, they are close to the lower edge of the 'normal' region, which fully indicates that the industry rebounds significantly.†Deputy of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Secretary-General Wang Huajun said that the continued recovery of the non-ferrous metals industry is closely related to the domestic and international environment.
From a global perspective, the Fed raised interest rates in December, the US economic data is mostly good, and the US dollar is oscillating, which will affect the price of non-ferrous metals to continue to rise. From the domestic perspective, the national economy in October continued the development trend of overall stability, stability, and stability in the third quarter. The market supply and demand have improved, and positive factors continue to increase.
According to the data, in November, among the seven indicators that constitute the leading index of the non-ferrous metals industry, five indicators increased year-on-year due to seasonal adjustment. LMEX, M2, automobile production, commercial housing sales area and home appliance output increased by 4.5% and 11.4, respectively. %, 18.2%, 38.9% and 11.6%. "It can be seen that the non-ferrous metal related industry has ushered in a clear recovery, which has brought about a significant improvement in the market supply and demand relationship." Wang Huajun said.
It is worth noting that the copper industry is picking up the most significant trend. Data show that in November, the London Metal Exchange (LME) monthly copper and March copper average price of 5443 US dollars / ton and 5455 US dollars / ton, respectively, up 15.03% and 14.84%, up 13.21% and 13.79%.
"The sharp rise in copper prices is related to the good news that China and the United States will increase infrastructure investment." Guo Chunqiao, senior business analyst of Hangzhou Jinjiang Group, said that the newly elected President of the United States Trump has introduced a series of economic stimulus policies, and in the short term, non-ferrous metals such as copper prices. The price will have a strong stimulating effect; at the same time, the domestic automotive, air-conditioning, refrigerators, generators and other terminal copper products output increased steadily year-on-year, such as the first 11 months of China's automobile production and sales have exceeded the full year of 2015. The “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†further clarifies that it will increase investment in infrastructure construction, with an investment of 500 billion yuan in hydropower alone.
However, although copper terminal consumption has increased, copper production and smelting capacity have also increased. At the same time, the consumption in the market is about to enter the off-season, and the fundamentals of supply and demand in the copper industry have not changed fundamentally. The copper industry is still facing greater pressure in the future.
In this regard, industry experts also said that in 2017, non-ferrous metal industry production will continue to maintain a steady trend, 10 kinds of non-ferrous metal production will maintain a small growth trend; because the non-ferrous metal industry environment has not fundamentally improved, the future will not rule out the boom The possibility of the index oscillating in the “cold†range.
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