Demand in the off-season to reduce steel price fluctuations

At present, the macro economy is stable and good. In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.4%, unchanged from the previous month. Meanwhile, HSBC China's final manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, of which the new orders index was 51.7, an eight-month high. . It indicates that the economic growth in the future is generally stable, while the steel market has entered the off-season and the market demand has been gradually reduced. It is expected that the domestic steel market will continue to fluctuate this week (2013.12.9-12.13).

According to the weekly price forecast model of the Information Research Center, this week (2013.12.9-12.13), the domestic steel market price will maintain a slight fluctuation, the long product market price will decline slightly, and the plate market price will rise or fall. The national steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 139.1 points, and the average steel price will be around 3620 yuan, with an average fluctuation of about 20 yuan. Among them, the long steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 156.9 points, and the slight fluctuation will decline by about 0.6 points; the sheet price index is expected to It fluctuates around 117.9 points and fluctuates around 0.1 point.

According to the market research data of the Information Research Center, domestic long products market prices will decline slightly this week (2013.12.9-12.13). Plate market prices will rise and fall; raw material market prices will fluctuate within a narrow range; iron ore market prices will be slightly Rising, coke market prices will remain stable, scrap market prices will decline slightly, billet market prices will steadily weaken.

1. Domestic steel market fluctuates slightly this week. Week 49 of 2013 (2013.12.2-12.6) The national comprehensive steel price index reached 139.5 points, up 0.52% from the previous week and 4.36% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long product price index was 157.5 points, which was 0.67% higher than last week and 1.16% lower than the same period of last year. The LGMI board price index was 117.8 points, 0.27% higher than last week and 9.09% lower than the same period of last year.

According to market research conducted by the Information Research Center, the price changes of 17 types of 44 specifications (varieties) of iron and steel raw materials and steel products in certain domestic regions during the 49th week of 2013 were as follows: Market prices of major steel products fluctuate slightly and rose compared with last week. The rising variety has increased slightly, while the flat variety has increased slightly and the falling variety has decreased. Of these, 11 species rose, 6 more than last week; 26 were flat and 3 more than last week; 7 were down, down 9 from last week. The price of domestic steel raw materials market has been steadily increasing, the market price of scrap steel has been steadily increasing, and the market prices of iron ore, coke and billets have remained stable.

2. This week, the steel market oscillated upwards. Week 49 of 2013 (2013.12.2-12.6) Rebar ** The main contract of the market 05 continued to fluctuate. This week's closing price rose 32 points from last week, although the gains are better. , But the spot did not show full follow the trend, the market is still watching the atmosphere is still heavier. This week, the main force is 1,405,300 positions, with an increase of 69,538 contracts. Positions are in a Masukura position in the process of price increase. The attitude of more than one single entry is more determined, which is conducive to the development of the market in the later period.

3. This week, the nation's steel stocks have been declining continuously. At present, the nation's steel stocks have declined for 8 weeks in a row. The decrease in the rate of decline in building materials inventory has slowed down, and the rate of decline in sheet stocks has accelerated slightly. According to the market research conducted by the Information Research Center, on December 6th, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country were 12.3692 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.63%, a slight slowdown of 0.16 from the rate of decline last week. Percentage. From the perspective of sub-categories, the country’s wire rod social inventory was 1,054.1 thousand tons, up 0.35% from the previous week, from last week’s decline to increase, 5.83% from the previous month and 0.95% from the same period of last year; rebar social stocks The amount was 45.123 million tons, up 0.17% from the previous week, and it turned from a decline last week to a rise, which was a decrease of 3.72% from the previous month and an increase of 0.73% from the same period of last year. The social inventory of the coiled screw was 303,600 tons, which was lower than last week. 4.16%, a slight slowdown of 0.38 percentage points from the previous week's decline rate, a decrease of 6.79% from the previous month and an increase of 10.9% from the same period of last year; hot rolled coil social inventory was 360.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.34% from the previous week. Compared with last week, the rate of decline accelerated by 1.28 percentage points, which was a decrease of 2.00% from the previous month and an increase of 16.69% from the same period of last year; the volume of CRC coiled society was 1.5432 million tons, 0.17% lower than last week, compared with that of last week. The rate of decline slowed slightly by 0.78 percentage points, which was a decrease of 2.16% from the previous month and 0.29% from the same period of last year. The social inventory of plates was 1,353,300 tons, which was 1.78% lower than that of last week, slightly lower than that of the previous week. Accelerated by 0.63 percentage points, a decrease of 6.00% from the previous month, compared with the same Up 0.01%.

4. Focus on market factors this week Macroeconomics:

[PMI] China's manufacturing PMI was 51.4% in November

The November 2013 China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey was 51.4%, unchanged from the previous month. The November PMI index was unchanged from the previous month, indicating that the future economic growth was generally stable. The expected index of production and business activities dropped significantly, reflecting that companies are more cautious about future market prospects. The recovery of export orders index indicates that export growth will stabilize in the future. With regard to the situation of market demand in the areas of corporate expectations, investment, consumption, and exports, the steady growth of the economy has been preliminarily established.

[PMI] November HSBC China Manufacturing PMI 50.8% Final Value

According to data released by HSBC and UK research firm Markit Group Ltd., the final value of HSBC China's manufacturing PMI in November was 50.8%, which was higher than the previously announced preview value (50.4%). The previous value was 50.9%. In the sub-items, the new orders index was 51.7, the highest in eight months.

[PMI] China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 56% in November

The China Non-manufacturing Business Activities Index for November 2013 released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey was 56%, down 0.3% from the previous quarter. Since non-manufacturing industries do not have a comprehensive index, they usually use the business activity index to reflect the overall change in the non-manufacturing economy. This month, the index of new export orders, in-hand orders, inventory, employees, suppliers' delivery time and business activities in the single index of China's non-manufacturing PMI showed a rebound compared with the previous month, with an increase of 1 percentage point. Within. The new orders, intermediate input prices, and fee price indices showed a decrease from the previous quarter. Among them, the intermediate input price index and the fee price index showed large declines, with a decrease of 1.3 and 1.9 percentage points respectively. In November, the non-manufacturing business activity index stabilized at a high level, and employees and companies are expected to continue to rise, reflecting that the current economic operation speed and quality are showing positive development. The price of fees dropped to less than 50%, and the inflationary pressures formed in the previous period have eased. The growth rate of the civil engineering construction industry has accelerated, and the information service industry has become active again. In the real estate market, business activities and new orders all showed a strong rebound, and the market became more active.

[PMI] November HSBC service PMI 52.5%

According to data released by HSBC and British research company Markit Group Ltd., China's November HSBC service industry PMI 52.5%, the former value of 52.6%; China November HSBC service PMI new business index 52.6%, for 4 months New low. In addition, HSBC China's comprehensive PMI hit a new high in eight months in November as a result of the strong manufacturing sector driving comprehensive output growth. Taken together, the growth of new businesses in the manufacturing and services industries is relatively slow, and the average input cost in November tells that the fastest level since February this year has been set. In November, the service sector in China continued to maintain a steady growth rate, and the service industry’s employment sector also experienced a third consecutive month of growth. However, the slowdown in new orders and the increase in cost of expenses show that the main growth momentum of the economy has begun to weaken.

[Logistics Business Climate] China's logistics industry in November is 53%

According to statistics from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the LPI of China's logistics industry in November was 53%, down 0.6% from the previous month. Among them, several sub-indexes fell to varying degrees, but they all remained at 50%. Above the line, it shows that the logistics industry economy still maintains stable and rapid growth, but the growth rate has slowed down. The business volume index fell 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but it still maintained a high level of 57%; the capital turnover index was 53.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the average inventory index and inventory turnover index both rebounded. : Average inventory index rose 0.2% to 50.3%, inventory turnover index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51.5%; new orders index and business activity expectations index dropped 0.6, 0.1 percentage points to 52.2% and 54.8%, respectively, in the logistics industry. The index of economic prosperity turned down, the business volume index and equipment utilization index fell slightly, but they all maintained a growth range of over 50%, reflecting that the growth in the scale of logistics business had slowed down and showed a basic trend of high stability. Both the average stock index and the stock turnover index both showed a rebound, indicating that the economic consumption activities are still relatively active. The new orders index and business activity expectations index fell slightly, indicating that the logistics industry economy will continue to stabilize trend.

Industry News:

[PMI] November Steel PMI is 47.7%

The Information Research Center released statistics for the steel and mining industry PMI index for the month of November 2013, which was 47.7%. The contraction zone rebounded by 0.7 percentage points, indicating that demand has improved and the market activity of the Steel Exchange has risen. From the sub-indexes, the 10 sub-indicators surveyed by the Steel and Steel PMI in November fell by 6 liters/4. Among them, the reduction in inventories, the increase in downstream orders, business confidence in the rebound in the market outlook, increased willingness to purchase, steel market sentiment rebounded. Taking into account the approaching end of December, some steel traders will adopt small-scale winter storage practices, coupled with December's expected decline in the level of crude steel production, and an initial judgment that steel prices will rebound in December.

[Iron and Steel Industry] Key statistics for iron and steel enterprises in January-October: total energy consumption of 238,722,000 tons of standard coal increased by 4.37% over the same period of last year

According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, from January to October, the total energy consumption of key steel enterprises was 2387.2902 million tons of standard coal, an increase of 9.957 million tons of standard coal, an increase of 4.37%; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel was 592.10 kg of standard coal. Ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.91 kg standard coal/ton, a decrease of 1.81%; tons of steel consumption 468.24 kWh/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.24 kWh/ton, a decrease of 2.14%. The energy consumption of sintering, pellets, coking, ironmaking, converter steelmaking, electric furnace steelmaking, steel processing, etc. decreased drastically by 2.44%, 2.08%, 4.64%, 1.75%, 24.40%, 7.03%, and 2.34% respectively. .

In January-October, the key statistics of iron and steel enterprises in the steel processing process in the hot-rolled process fell 2.96% year-on-year; cold-rolled process energy consumption fell 3.93% year-on-year. In the hot rolling process, the energy consumption reductions of large sections, small sections, wire rods, plate, hot-rolled wide-band, seamless pipes, etc. were 4.29%, 1.59%, 0.11%, 1.76%, 2.44%, and 4.57%, respectively; The energy consumption in the mid-profile and hot-rolled narrow-band processes increased compared to last year, rising by 6.91% and 4.12% respectively. In the cold-rolling process, the energy consumption of cold-rolled wide-band, cold-rolled narrow-band, plating, and coating processes all declined, with a decrease of 3.13%, 4.28%, 6.71%, and 8.99%, respectively.

Downstream demand:

[Cars] Heavy truck sales volume increased by 29% year-on-year to 63,000 units in November

In November, the heavy truck market sold about 63,000 vehicles, an increase of 29% from the 49,000 vehicles sold in the same period of last year and a 4% increase from the previous quarter. Of these, there are four companies with over 10,000 vehicles, namely Dongfeng (13,400 units), FAW (11,500 units), CNHTC (10,000 units) and Futian (10,000 units), which are up 38% and 41% year-on-year respectively. , 38% and 38%; Fifth Shaanxi Automobile sold 7,300 heavy trucks in November, up 4% year-on-year; Jianghuai, Hongyan and Hualing sold 2,700, 1956 and 16,12 heavy trucks in the month, up 16%, 21% and 61 %. Beiben is still the only major company to decline. In November, it sold 1050 vehicles, a decrease of 44% from 1,881 vehicles in the same period last year. The industry has sold 69.08 million heavy trucks in the first 11 months of this year, an increase of 18% year-on-year. Compared with 636,000 vehicles in 2012, the net increase has reached more than 50,000 vehicles. The breakthrough of 700,000 units in 2013 is just around the corner. It is expected that It reached the scale of 750,000-76 million vehicles.