The Analysis of China's Electric Power Enterprise Federation's "2010 Economic Situation and Power Development Analysis and Forecasting Conference" held this year shows that from 2009 to 2010, the proportion of thermal power investment in power investment will continue to fall below 50%; the proportion of investment in hydropower and nuclear power will continue to increase. The share of power grid investment in power investment will also be lower than 50% again. This means that the orders for thermal power equipment of power generation equipment companies are still decreasing.
It is understood that the reduction in orders for power generation equipment has become a common problem faced by thermal power equipment industry companies. Some of the power station equipment manufacturers' bids for bids in 2008 could not be fulfilled yet. Relevant data show that in the first four months of 2010, the number of thermal power bid opening projects has continuously decreased, and orders have fallen by nearly 20%.
Thermal power investment will decrease by 30%
According to the forecast of experts, in the next 10 years, according to the GDP growth rate of about 8%, it is expected that the electricity demand will reach 76,700 kilowatt-hours by 2020. The corresponding power generation capacity will reach 1.65 billion kilowatts, and the electricity demand and power generation capacity will double that of 2009.
At present, the basic thinking of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" has been initially outlined. In the development of the energy industry, the emphasis is on the clean use of low-carbon energy such as nuclear power, wind power, solar energy, and biomass energy. It is predicted that by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the proportion of thermal power investment in the entire power supply investment will drop below 30%.
Zhang Guobao, the director of the National Energy Administration, has this account in mind - based on a percentage of renewable energy installed capacity of 20 million kilowatts, a percentage of 15% is about 300 million kilowatts. Among them, hydropower is the largest, planning ratio is 7.5%-8%, nuclear power installation target is 70 million kilowatts, and the rest is mainly undertaken by wind power. Since the average annual use of wind turbines is 2000 hours, at least 150 million to 200 million kilowatts of wind power are needed to complete the target.
New energy growth in thermal power declined
With regard to nuclear power, data shows that the world's largest single nuclear power unit has been introduced into China. In the next few years, China will start construction of 6 to 8 nuclear power plants with a capacity of more than 1 million kilowatts per year, and another 6 to 8 nuclear power plants of similar size will start generating electricity. According to the plan, by 2020, the installed capacity of China's nuclear power plants will reach more than 6000 to 70 million kilowatts.
At present, the investment cost of wind farms in China is about 8,000 yuan/kilowatt, while the thermal power is 3,500 yuan to 4,000 yuan/kilowatt, not including the investment in off-technology. According to estimates, the cost of wind farm investment in wind farms has accounted for 70%-75% of the total cost. Since 2007, the price per kilowatt of wind turbines has been falling all the way: in 2007, it was 6,700 yuan per kilowatt; in 2008 it was around 6,300 yuan per kilowatt; at the end of 2009, it fell to 5,000 yuan per kilowatt. Considering the technological progress and the increase in unit capacity of the unit, there is still a lot of room for price reduction.
According to Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, “The advantages of wind power are reflected in the fact that once the wind farm is completed, there is no need to consider buying coal, and there is no need to worry about rising coal prices, bad weather, or insufficient capacity.â€
The installed capacity of solar power generation reached 2 million kilowatts and 20 million kilowatts in 2011 and 2020 respectively. The development of other new energy sources may not be comparable to the previous two, but it will also make a difference.
In the next 10 years, it will be a period of new energy development. Regardless of whether it is installed or capacity, even though it still occupies a large part, it is undeniable that the proportion of installed capacity in the future will decline.
By 2020, the installed capacity of clean energy power generation will increase to 352 million kilowatts. At that time, the total installed power generation capacity in the country will reach 1.65 billion kilowatts. Based on this, the installed capacity of clean energy power generation will reach about 35%. The corresponding proportion of thermal power installations will drop to 65%. From this calculation, by 2020, the proportion of thermal power installed capacity will drop by about 10%, an average annual decline of 1 percentage point.