At the end of the year, the issue of China's industrial development has once again become the focus of attention from all walks of life. At the China Industry Development Forum, Liu Shijin, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that the core problem of China's industrial development is the lack of demand for leading industries, which leads to an imbalance in the industrial structure. Therefore, it is necessary to solve the development problems of leading industries in order to obtain rapid economic growth for a long period of time. In high-growth industries, the elimination rate of enterprises is correspondingly higher.
Leading industries drive economic growth The Chinese economy is in the midst of a new round of growth. Liu Shijin believes that China is a developing country and its economy can maintain a relatively high growth rate in the early, middle or middle and late stages of industrialization. China is currently taking a fairly standardized industrial development path, which is to rely on leading industries to drive economic growth.
Since 2002, a number of new leading industries have played a very important role in China's economic development, taking the lead in housing, automobile and urban infrastructure construction. These industries have certain final product formations, which have driven a number of industrial developments with intermediate investment properties, mainly steel, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals. The development of these intermediate investment products has also stimulated the growth of the energy industry such as electricity, coal, oil and other transportation industries such as ports, railways and highways, namely the basic industry.
Most of the industries in this growth pattern belong to the heavy industry in statistics, so the phenomenon of heavy industry growth has accelerated significantly in the past two years. Is this unique in China or is it common internationally? From the international experience, the industrialized pioneer countries have basically experienced the development of heavy industry (technically intensive industries), from light industry to mining and raw materials, to heavy industries with high technology processing industries. So it is not difficult to understand that this is a common situation.
High-growth industrial clusters build a long-term high-speed growth platform for the economy Regarding the characteristics of this round of heavy industry growth, Liu Shijin believes that it is a consumption orientation. Leading growth is new types of consumer goods, such as automobiles, housing, and urban infrastructure. From the supply side, it basically formed a pattern of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises, Sino-foreign joint ventures or wholly foreign-owned enterprises, and private enterprises.
With several leading industries as the forerunners, a high-growth industrial cluster has been formed, including automobile, real estate, machinery manufacturing, and other consumer products growth industries such as dairy products and digital products. The establishment of the leading or dominant position of housing and automobiles in economic growth will build a basic platform for China to maintain a growth rate of 7% to 8% in the next 10 to 20 years.
Structural imbalance is an important risk for growth. Liu Shijin said that the new round of economic growth began in the second half of 2002. There was a serious structural imbalance in a year or so. There were mainly the following reasons: First, supply formation The cycle is different. The intermediate investment products industry and the basic industry require a large amount of investment, and the period of forming production capacity is long. Self-interest within heavy industry has increased demand for intermediate investment and basic industries. Second is the difference in the degree of marketization. The pilot and intermediate investment products industry has a high degree of marketization, with market-oriented investment entities as the mainstay, and the supply response is fast; the basic industry still has a strong monopoly and the supply response is slow. The third is that government intervention is different. Local governments in the pilot and intermediate investment industries have strong support, and the entry of basic industries is more stringent. The fourth is information and knowledge issues. The limitations of information and knowledge lead to the blindness of businesses and local governments. The fifth is the impact of international factors. In general, there are technical reasons for structural imbalances, mainly due to institutional and policy reasons.
Achieving a new structural balance through governance is a solution to the structural imbalance. Liu Shijin expounded the specific mode of operation, that is, in the case of structural imbalance, the pilot industry appropriately slowed down the growth rate, and the intermediate investment industry prevented short-term excessive growth while maintaining rapid growth in the medium and long term.
In the future, the differentiation and restructuring within the industry will accelerate the recent trend of major industries, and Liu Shijin made a specific analysis. He believes that in the leading industry, real estate should be decelerated appropriately. The auto industry has slipped very fast in recent months, but there are not much problems. The intermediate investment product industry can maintain a moderate growth rate by strengthening layout planning and social regulation. The basic industry should accelerate growth. If macroeconomic policies are appropriate and important external conditions are stable, the conditions for maintaining an 8% growth rate next year are available. Most industries in the new industrial growth pattern can still maintain rapid growth, but the differentiation and restructuring within the industry will be strengthened.
Liu Shijin reminded companies to pay special attention to the fact that in a promising industry, the elimination rate of enterprises is higher. The average person thinks that there is no growth in the industry, and the elimination rate of enterprises is relatively high, but it is not. The high elimination rate is often the industry that everyone is optimistic about because there are too many people entering. This is a person who can't be vigilant.
The 2004 China Industrial Development Forum and the 2005 Industrial Development Outlook were held in Beijing in late December. At the forum, Liu Shijin, member of the party group and director of the General Office of the Development Research Center of the State Council, elaborated on the characteristics, problems, policy trends and development trends of the current industrial development. This article is the reporter's report on Liu Shijin's latest research results. At the same time, today's second and third editions of this newspaper also reported some experts and scholars in the forum on the supply and demand of related industries and investment development situation, market competition pattern, policy trends, etc., please pay attention to the reader.
Leading industries drive economic growth The Chinese economy is in the midst of a new round of growth. Liu Shijin believes that China is a developing country and its economy can maintain a relatively high growth rate in the early, middle or middle and late stages of industrialization. China is currently taking a fairly standardized industrial development path, which is to rely on leading industries to drive economic growth.
Since 2002, a number of new leading industries have played a very important role in China's economic development, taking the lead in housing, automobile and urban infrastructure construction. These industries have certain final product formations, which have driven a number of industrial developments with intermediate investment properties, mainly steel, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals. The development of these intermediate investment products has also stimulated the growth of the energy industry such as electricity, coal, oil and other transportation industries such as ports, railways and highways, namely the basic industry.
Most of the industries in this growth pattern belong to the heavy industry in statistics, so the phenomenon of heavy industry growth has accelerated significantly in the past two years. Is this unique in China or is it common internationally? From the international experience, the industrialized pioneer countries have basically experienced the development of heavy industry (technically intensive industries), from light industry to mining and raw materials, to heavy industries with high technology processing industries. So it is not difficult to understand that this is a common situation.
High-growth industrial clusters build a long-term high-speed growth platform for the economy Regarding the characteristics of this round of heavy industry growth, Liu Shijin believes that it is a consumption orientation. Leading growth is new types of consumer goods, such as automobiles, housing, and urban infrastructure. From the supply side, it basically formed a pattern of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises, Sino-foreign joint ventures or wholly foreign-owned enterprises, and private enterprises.
With several leading industries as the forerunners, a high-growth industrial cluster has been formed, including automobile, real estate, machinery manufacturing, and other consumer products growth industries such as dairy products and digital products. The establishment of the leading or dominant position of housing and automobiles in economic growth will build a basic platform for China to maintain a growth rate of 7% to 8% in the next 10 to 20 years.
Structural imbalance is an important risk for growth. Liu Shijin said that the new round of economic growth began in the second half of 2002. There was a serious structural imbalance in a year or so. There were mainly the following reasons: First, supply formation The cycle is different. The intermediate investment products industry and the basic industry require a large amount of investment, and the period of forming production capacity is long. Self-interest within heavy industry has increased demand for intermediate investment and basic industries. Second is the difference in the degree of marketization. The pilot and intermediate investment products industry has a high degree of marketization, with market-oriented investment entities as the mainstay, and the supply response is fast; the basic industry still has a strong monopoly and the supply response is slow. The third is that government intervention is different. Local governments in the pilot and intermediate investment industries have strong support, and the entry of basic industries is more stringent. The fourth is information and knowledge issues. The limitations of information and knowledge lead to the blindness of businesses and local governments. The fifth is the impact of international factors. In general, there are technical reasons for structural imbalances, mainly due to institutional and policy reasons.
Achieving a new structural balance through governance is a solution to the structural imbalance. Liu Shijin expounded the specific mode of operation, that is, in the case of structural imbalance, the pilot industry appropriately slowed down the growth rate, and the intermediate investment industry prevented short-term excessive growth while maintaining rapid growth in the medium and long term.
In the future, the differentiation and restructuring within the industry will accelerate the recent trend of major industries, and Liu Shijin made a specific analysis. He believes that in the leading industry, real estate should be decelerated appropriately. The auto industry has slipped very fast in recent months, but there are not much problems. The intermediate investment product industry can maintain a moderate growth rate by strengthening layout planning and social regulation. The basic industry should accelerate growth. If macroeconomic policies are appropriate and important external conditions are stable, the conditions for maintaining an 8% growth rate next year are available. Most industries in the new industrial growth pattern can still maintain rapid growth, but the differentiation and restructuring within the industry will be strengthened.
Liu Shijin reminded companies to pay special attention to the fact that in a promising industry, the elimination rate of enterprises is higher. The average person thinks that there is no growth in the industry, and the elimination rate of enterprises is relatively high, but it is not. The high elimination rate is often the industry that everyone is optimistic about because there are too many people entering. This is a person who can't be vigilant.
The 2004 China Industrial Development Forum and the 2005 Industrial Development Outlook were held in Beijing in late December. At the forum, Liu Shijin, member of the party group and director of the General Office of the Development Research Center of the State Council, elaborated on the characteristics, problems, policy trends and development trends of the current industrial development. This article is the reporter's report on Liu Shijin's latest research results. At the same time, today's second and third editions of this newspaper also reported some experts and scholars in the forum on the supply and demand of related industries and investment development situation, market competition pattern, policy trends, etc., please pay attention to the reader.
Hand Held Metal Detector,Portable Metal Detector,Inspection Hand Held Metal Detectors
Walk Through Metal Detector CO.,LTD , http://www.nsmetaldetector.com