The market is always turbulent, from international relations, domestic policies, to changes in supply and demand, can make the market ups and downs. This year, the global economic recovery accelerated, and the shortage of most mineral products intensified, supporting market prices to usher in general growth, and driving mining companies to significantly improve their operations and capital market confidence. However, institutional investors have become cautious about future expectations and the enthusiasm of the investment industry has also decreased. Since the beginning of this year, China's mining market has been steadily improving, and the mining industry continues to be in a period of structural adjustment, optimization and upgrading. In line with this, the China Mining Index is based on a moderate increase, and there has been no significant shock. The China Mining Industry Index jointly released by the China Institute of Land and Resources Economics and China Mining News shows that in November 2017, the coal industry index was 123.3, up 1.1% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter; the non-ferrous metals industry index was 181.9, up 2.9 year-on-year. %, the chain increased by 0.3%; the ferrous metal industry index was 140.5, up 1.4% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter; the oil and gas industry index was 117.4, up 1.0% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. In November, the overall trend of China's mining index was upward, with year-on-year growth and positive ring growth. The coal industry index, the non-ferrous metal industry index, the oil and gas industry index, and the ferrous metal industry index were both positive and positive quarter-on-quarter, and the trend was better than the previous month. In general, China's mining market is still a structural adjustment, but the trend of a stable and good platform period continues. The basic balance between supply and demand in the coal market Under the circumstance that “de-capacity†continues to advance and achieves remarkable results, the focus of the coal industry regulation policy in 2017 has been gradually adjusted from “de-capacity and limited production†in 2016 to “guarantee supply and stabilize coalâ€. price". In general, in 2017, the coal market supply and demand achieved a basic balance. The overall price of coal prices bid farewell to the unilateral rise in 2016 and entered the stage of oscillation adjustment. In 2017, the Bohai Bay Thermal Coal Price Index and the market coal price, which reflect the comprehensive price of thermal coal including Changxie Coal, showed an oscillating adjustment trend. In terms of coking coal, the rhythm of coking coal price and thermal coal price fluctuations are not exactly the same, but the overall trend is basically the same. From the beginning of the year to mid-February, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal declined to varying degrees. From mid-February to the end of March, the price of thermal coal rebounded, and the price of coking coal gradually stabilized. From the end of March to the beginning of June, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal were overall. After weakening from June to September, the price of thermal coal oscillated and the price of coking coal rebounded rapidly after entering the market. After entering October, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal stabilized and even fell overall. At the end of November, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Sea began. Once again, the price of coking coal in some areas has also stabilized and rebounded. 2017 is the first year of large-scale promotion of medium and long-term contract system for coal purchase and sales under market economy conditions. The practice of one year proves that medium and long-term contracts have played an important role in stabilizing the supply and demand of enterprises, stabilizing the market, ensuring stable supply and stable prices, and promoting the healthy development of related industries. Recently, the data collection results of third-party credit institutions for the implementation of mid- and long-term contracts in 2017 show that the compliance rate exceeds 90%. According to the statistics of China Coal Industry Association, the medium and long-term contract value of large coal enterprises in China generally exceeds 80% in 2017. The medium and long-term contract price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port is stable at a reasonable interval of 560 yuan to 570 yuan per ton. Due to the de-capacity and the distribution characteristics of coal resources, the production of thermal coal has become more concentrated in the “three wests†and the western region. The pattern of coal production and transportation has undergone significant changes, which has brought greater challenges to stabilize coal supply. There has been a shortage of supply problems in some areas over time. Relevant departments have strengthened investigations and studies, and have taken effective measures on the basis of finding out the basis to promote the release of high-quality production capacity and further enhance the coal transportation capacity. At present, positive changes have taken place in the production, volume and stock of coal. From January to November, the output of raw coal was 3.14 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. As of the end of November, Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal closing price of 609 yuan / ton, down 7 yuan / ton than the end of October; 5000 kcal 578 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton; 4500 kcal 512 yuan / ton, down 14 Yuan / ton. According to the deployment of the relevant ministries and commissions of the state, coal enterprises should strive to achieve the number of medium and long-term contracts for coal purchase and sale in 2018 not less than 75% of their own resources, and rationally set prices according to the pricing mechanism of “base price + floating priceâ€. Strengthen contract performance and ensure that the contract redemption rate is above 90%. This will further stabilize coal prices to a certain extent. Looking forward to 2018, under the implementation of a series of policies such as the increase of medium and long-term contract ratio and coal inventory system, some industry experts predict that coal prices will be high and low in the next year, coal price fluctuations will be reduced, and coal prices will be The small oscillations fell back in the year. China drives world oil and gas demand growth In 2017, OPEC and its allies continue to limit production, although it is still the main factor affecting the crude oil market, but demand is still led by China. From January to November, China imported 390 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The World Bank’s October 2017 “Commodity Market Outlook†report said that due to steady increases in demand, oil exporting countries’ production reduction agreements and US shale oil production stabilization, the 2018 oil price forecast will average from 2017. The $53 rose to $56. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producing countries may agree to further cut production and maintain upward pressure on oil prices. Industry insiders analyzed that China has become the main driving force for the growth of world crude oil demand. The driving force for China's crude oil imports this year includes three factors: continuous replenishment of strategic reserves, smaller non-state-owned refinery demand, and refined oil export growth. It is expected that China's crude oil import demand outlook will play an important role in the global supply and demand situation in 2018. The above factors are still working in China, but the possibility of a decline in single digits is relatively large. With the government's encouragement of the "coal to gas" campaign, China's LNG imports soared 48% from January to October this year. In addition to the import of pipeline natural gas from Central Asia, China imported 60.7 million tons of natural gas from January to November this year, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%. Compared with natural gas imports, domestic natural gas production from January to November was 133.81 billion cubic meters, up only 9.1% year-on-year. For the government's plan to phase out industrial and residential heating coal-fired boilers, the lack of natural gas supply has become apparent. Industry insiders expect that by the next winter China will improve its natural gas infrastructure and will be able to increase its natural gas use. Based on domestic natural gas production restrictions and pipeline import volume restrictions, LNG imports in 2018 will again grow strongly, even if prices remain high. Iron ore prices fluctuated widely in 2017, iron ore prices out of a wave of wide fluctuations. In the first half of this year, with the continuous increase of iron ore inventories in major ports, prices have fallen sharply. It can be said that the trend of iron ore in the first half of the year is consistent with the fundamental logic of iron ore itself, and in the second half of June and August, The iron ore market has seen an increase in both inventory and prices. The iron ore price during this period was mainly affected by the continued rise in steel prices. Prices began to decline in late August, and a new round of declines began. The main logic of this round of decline is the limited production of steel mills in winter, which inhibits the demand for iron ore. After entering November, the market found that steel mills cut production less than expected. In the case of steel mills continuing high profits, the expectations of high-quality mine demand were rekindled and prices began to rebound. As of now, the price of iron ore in 2017 has a tendency to fluctuate widely. The data shows that from January to November 2017, the output of iron ore raw ore was 161.098 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The import volume of iron ore in the first 11 months was 989.6 million tons, an increase of 53.84 million tons, an increase of 6%; the import volume of iron ore in 2017 is expected to be 108.698 million tons; compared with 102.47 million tons in 2016; an increase of 62.27 million. Ton. From the supply side, industry insiders expect that the four major mines will continue to increase production in 2018, mainly from Vale and Rio Tinto. BHP Billiton's overall supply is stable, while FMG's output is likely to decline slightly. Due to the environmental policy factors of the Chinese government, the production of domestic mines fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2017, causing some inland steel mills to purchase imported iron ore from ports, and some of the inland steel mills began to purchase long in 2018. According to the situation of the imported mines, the production of domestic mines is difficult to increase. From the demand side, with the continuous promotion of environmental protection and production restrictions, steel production will continue to decline in the later period, and the demand intensity of iron ore will continue to weaken. At present, the average available days of imported steel inventories of domestic steel mills are more than 30 days. In the short term, unless the iron ore prices fall sharply, the steel mills will maintain the strategy of using them at will, and will not increase the stocks in large quantities. In addition, the consumption of scrap steel in China's steel mills increased significantly in 2017. In general, in terms of the fundamentals of iron ore, the state of oversupply is difficult to change, and the trend of increasing production in mines will continue. With the continuous deepening of supply-side structural reforms in China, the demand for iron ore will be further converted to high-quality ore. The main hot spots in the later market are still the problem of declining demand and weak supply and limited production. In the case of sufficient supply of iron ore, fluctuations in iron ore prices will mainly follow fluctuations in steel prices. The shortage of non-ferrous metals has increased. The price is strong. With the steadily rising prices, the growth of most global metal varieties has accelerated since 2017. Statistics from the International Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) show that in the first three quarters of 2017, among the major metals and minerals that were included in the observations, only nickel and silver (mineral) production declined year-on-year, and zinc production remained basically flat. The output of gold and gold (mineral) increased slightly, while the production of lead, molybdenum (mineral) and tin increased significantly. In terms of domestic supply, the National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in the first 10 months, the total output of ten domestic non-ferrous metals reached 45.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Supported by the acceleration of the global economic recovery and the stabilization of the Chinese economy, the consumption of most metal varieties in the world increased steadily in 2017. According to the statistics of the International Bureau of Metal Statistics, the consumption of lead, aluminum, zinc and copper in the world increased in different degrees in the first three quarters of 2017 compared with the same period of 2016. Only the consumption of nickel and tin declined to some extent. In terms of domestic demand for basic metals, the demand for aluminum and lead has increased significantly in the first three quarters. The demand for copper and zinc has remained basically unchanged, while the demand for nickel and tin has shrunk. According to the article of the Minmetals Economic Research Institute, the shortage of most metal products in the world since 2017 has been expanded by the two-way supply and demand side. Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the international market metal mineral prices have bottomed out. In 2017, the prices of major products continued to fluctuate and became the main force driving the rise of global commodity prices. In addition, global commodity prices generally weakened in the third quarter, while metal product prices remained strong, and prices of multiple products continued to refresh in the past three years. However, after entering the fourth quarter, some metal commodity prices began to fluctuate. For major commodities, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead and other metals have risen more than 20% during the year. The price of nickel and gold has also increased by more than 10%. Only tin and iron ore have prices at the end of November compared with the beginning of the year. Falling down, but the average price during the year was 11.96% and 21.91% higher than the average price of last year. The World Bank report predicts that tight supply should push up the price of basic metals such as lead, nickel and zinc, and the demand situation in the Chinese market will affect the future global metal price trend. Since 2017, the prices of small metal varieties related to new energy and new materials have also skyrocketed. Among them, the price of lithium carbonate (Shanghai) rose from 124,500 yuan / ton at the end of 2016 to 168,000 yuan / ton at the end of November 2017, an increase of nearly 40%; the price of electrolytic cobalt (Shanghai) rose from 268,000 yuan / ton to 482,000 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 80%. In addition, the price increase of tungsten, rare earth and other varieties from 2017 to the present is also around 30%~40%. The price of chromium and molybdenum metal is relatively low. Although the price of electrolytic manganese at the end of November is significantly lower than that at the end of 2016, the average price increase is still Reached 7.34%. Non-ferrous metals, especially rare metals, are the industrial base for new energy and new materials, and the new energy industry is demanding new materials. National planning and central and local supporting policies to determine energy conservation and environmental protection, emerging information industry, bio-industry, new energy, new energy vehicles, high-end equipment manufacturing and new materials, seven strategic emerging industries, will drive cobalt, titanium, lithium More than 50 kinds of minerals demanding the development of strategic emerging industries such as tungsten, tin, platinum, rare earth, antimony, fluorite and graphite. Affected by the international oil price and the strength of the US dollar, global gold production costs have increased this year, at $820/oz in the first half of the year. Thomson Reuters analysts predict that from this year onwards, global mineral gold production will fall year-on-year. On the other hand, in the long run, Chinese companies are an important driver of the increase in gold production. At this year's China International Mining Conference, the heads of China Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Group said in their speeches that the gold mine has a quick start to production and has a first-mover advantage over other minerals. It has a “One Belt, One Road†route. Taking up 47% of global reserves and a stable and stable consumer market, the “Belt and Road†will be the highlight of the development of gold enterprises in the future, speeding up the layout. The latest issue of the China National Economic and Technological Non-ferrous Metals Industry Monthly Climate Index report shows that the entire industry has shown a stable operation and continuous improvement in efficiency. Due to the recovery of the major economies of the global economy, the stability of the global economy has gradually increased, and the rise in commodity prices, the fundamentals of the development of China's non-ferrous metals industry have performed well. The production of non-ferrous metals has grown steadily and corporate profits have increased significantly. In the third quarter, the non-ferrous metal enterprise information index was above the critical point, at 52.7. Entrepreneurial confidence increased and market expectations were positive. At the same time, it should be noted that some of the more prominent problems still exist. For example, the contradiction of overcapacity still exists, the financing of enterprises is difficult, and the production costs are rising. Overall, the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to show a steady or slightly upward trend in the coming period. The non-metallic mineral products market was generally flat in 2017. The non-metallic mineral products market was relatively flat as a whole, the export volume showed a recovery growth, the price stabilized, and the industry benefit increased significantly. In the third quarter of 2017, the China Economics Industry Climate Index showed that in the first three quarters, the added value of the materials industry increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points over the first half of the year. Among them, the non-metallic mineral products industry grew by 4.7% (higher than other materials industries), and the growth rate of non-metallic mineral products industry decreased compared with the first half of the year. Focus on the phosphate ore and magnesite markets. After the long-term “resting and restoring interest†in the phosphate rock market, the price of phosphate rock has been raised. This year we have ushered in an unprecedented environmental inspection, which has received great influence from all walks of life. Phosphate rock is no exception. Since the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has been declining. Especially in October, environmental protection and safety inspections have been superimposed. The mining of mining enterprises in the country is limited. The output of phosphate ore is only 8.556 million tons, which is 35.87% lower than the same period of last year. Since entering November, the national phosphate ore producers have opened the upshift mode. Recently, the market price of ammonium phosphate and yellow phosphorus in the downstream has soared, and the operation is strong, which drives the trading of phosphate rock market. In summary, the domestic phosphate rock market operation in the early stage has been a weak and stable operation, and the price adjustment is considered to be “thick and thinâ€. And as the weather turns cold, mining will continue to be restricted, while mining companies are not well stocked, and there is still room for improvement in quotations. The specific operation of the market needs to continue to pay attention to the mining rate and changes in downstream demand. In terms of magnesite, Liaoning (magnesium ore reserves accounted for 80% to 85% of the country) since the beginning of this year. Due to the local government's promotion of mineral resources integration and strict environmental protection requirements, magnesite could not be mined on a large scale, and the output contracted sharply. Promote the continued increase in the price of magnesia. It is worth noting that the peak demand for magnesite resources in China has arrived, and the demand will slowly decline in the future. China strongly supports the development of non-metallic mineral functional materials industry. In the future, the non-metallic mineral industry has broad prospects for development and is promising. According to the article of the Minmetals Economic Research Institute, after years of downturns and adjustments, the global mining market showed signs of recovery in 2016. After entering 2017, the prices of major commodities have not decreased, the prices of individual varieties have repeatedly hit new heights, the management of mining companies has improved significantly, the attractiveness of capital markets has been restored, and the global mining industry has entered a new round of development cycle. However, some experts believe that the mining adjustment has not yet ended, but the basic position of the mining industry in the national economy has not changed. Deepening the structural reform of the supply side of the mining industry will certainly add momentum to the promotion of mining structure adjustment and the promotion of mining development. In 2018, how the minerals market will be interpreted, we will continue to pay attention.
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