What is the trend of China's economy in 2010? What changes will China's macroeconomic policy have? Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, made a detailed interpretation and incisive analysis at the China Industrial Forum. He believes that to ensure the quality and efficiency of economic growth, the most important thing is to maintain the continuity and stability of the policy.
Yao Jingyuan said that this year will be a year in which China’s economic restructuring and development mode have undergone substantial progress. It is a year in which the service industry, especially the modern service industry, has a relatively rapid development. It is the driving force of consumption for the entire economic growth. A year that can play a bigger role. Despite the extremely complicated situation, with the correct leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and the joint efforts of entrepreneurs and hundreds of millions of people, the Chinese economy is still able to hand over a good report card this year.
In the face of economic difficulties, the company will not analyze the current economic development trend of China. Yao Jingyuan said that the growth rate of the above-scale industries in the first and second months of last year was only 3.8%. In the first two months of this year, the growth rate reached 20.7%, which is not easy. In the final analysis, the industrial stability and recovery. However, the more the stage of economic recovery, the more companies are eliminated.
In response to the problem of repatriation and labor shortage in the Pearl River Delta region in the beginning of this year, Yao Jingyuan said that when many companies encountered financial crisis last year, he suggested that enterprises should not lay off workers and fire workers. In fact, for Chinese companies, the most valuable asset is not the machine equipment, but the skilled and excellent workforce. When the company is eliminated, it is not the time of the financial crisis, but when the economy picks up. Facts have proved that when the economy recovers, a company with a skilled workforce can immediately take orders, produce, and have profits. Otherwise it will be eliminated. At present, some provinces in the central region have advertised that "the wages are only two hundred yuan, so they don't have to leave their homes." It can be seen that the migrant workers in the past were separated from the countryside, separated from the county, and left the province. They are now leaving the town and leaving the county, but they are not leaving the province. This also shows the rapid development of the old industrial bases in central, western and northeastern China. A considerable number of migrant workers can be employed without leaving the province. At the same time, from the severe employment unemployment situation to the current shortage of migrant workers, this is also a very important sign that the Chinese economy is stabilizing and recovering. Yao Jingyuan suggested that industrial enterprises should not lay off employees in the face of economic difficulties, but should focus on cultivating a skilled and excellent workforce.
Positive fiscal policy remains unchanged In 2009, with the negative economic growth of the world, the Chinese economy maintained a growth rate of 8.7%. Premier Wen Jiabao said in the government work report that the target of economic growth this year is still 8%. But "this 8" is not "the 8". Yao Jingyuan said that if 8% of last year was to maintain growth, protect people's livelihood, and maintain stability, then 8% of this year is a restructuring structure. This year's 8% is to be realized on the premise that we have made substantial progress in the structural adjustment and the transformation of the economic development mode. We must give priority to the word "good" and guarantee the quality and efficiency of growth. To ensure quality and efficiency, the most important thing is to maintain the continuity and stability of the policy.
Yao Jingyuan believes that the reason why China's economy has achieved a V-shaped reversal is that the Party Central Committee and the State Council can scientifically judge this difficulty and make decisive decisions, and implement a monetary policy including a positive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. A package of policies to deal with the crisis. On the other hand, China’s institutional advantage is a socialist system with Chinese characteristics. Although our system has many shortcomings and needs to continuously deepen reforms, the advantages of the system cannot be ignored. It can form the power of the whole nation, so that our hundreds of millions of people can overcome difficulties together and ensure that the Chinese economy achieves a V-shaped reversal.
At present, the recovery of China's economy is not equal to a fundamental improvement, and it still faces many difficulties. Including the uncertainty of external demand, the world economic recovery is slow. At the same time, the deep-seated contradictions and problems inherent in China's economy have not been well resolved. The Prime Minister proposed that this year is the most complicated year for the Chinese economy. In 2010, for the Chinese economy, both favorable and unfavorable factors appeared simultaneously, and short-term and long-term issues were intertwined, and domestic and international issues affected each other. In the face of complex situations, we must maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies. Including the continued implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy cannot be changed.
Yao Jingyuan said that there are two reasons for the unchanging. One is the fiscal deficit this year. The fiscal deficit this year is 1.05 trillion yuan. This is the first time in 60 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China that China's fiscal deficit exceeded 1 trillion yuan. That is to say, we still have to continue to implement positive The second is the financial investment of 750 billion yuan, lower than last year, 750 billion yuan in China's 30 years of reform and opening up is still quite high, and this year China's M2 (money-delivery) growth rate of 17%, M2 calculation is equivalent to " GDP + CPI", this year's GDP is 8%, CPI is 3%, and M2 is 17%. Moreover, 17% is equivalent to the average from 2003 to 2006. These three years are the period of rapid economic development and the most golden period for enterprises. Therefore, the above two data tell us that the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy will not change this year, and we must maintain the continuity and stability of growth.
CPI increase of 3%: It is difficult to achieve the most concerned about the current situation, how to look at the current price and inflation, Yao Jingyuan said that the Prime Minister proposed in this government work report, this year's full price (CPI) The rise is controlled at around 3%. Some time ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI in February reached 2.7%, approaching the warning line of 3%. In this regard, it can be considered that this year's CPI control is difficult within 3%, but it can be achieved.
He analyzed that this 2.7% is the price increase in February compared with February last year, and 2.01% of the 2.7% is food price increase, accounting for 74%. The important factor here is the Spring Festival (the New Year in February this year, and last year is January), which has raised the price to some extent. Coupled with climatic factors, this winter is cold and snowy, which makes it difficult to transport and grow vegetables, so the price of vegetables has risen a lot.
Yao Jingyuan frankly said that there was indeed pressure for price increases in 2010. Among the main factors driving price increases this year, the first risk is imported inflation. With the globalization of the economy, the prices of large-scale basic commodities such as oil and iron ore in the international market have generally risen, and China's dependence on large-scale basic commodities in the international market is very high, so domestic oil prices will also be pushed up. In addition, this year's inflation expectations are strong, and many people expect hyperinflation this year. This psychological factor is bound to cause some people to take action and go to the mall to buy. Expected factors will also pull up prices.
But there are also factors that inhibit inflation. Yao Jingyuan said that the first factor to curb price increases is agricultural stability and grain harvest, which laid an important foundation for price stability this year. In addition, the current domestic overcapacity, imbalance between supply and demand also makes the market no rush to buy.
Tune the structure: the development of modern service industry is a breakthrough. Yao Jingyuan said that the target of 8% growth this year is focused on restructuring, and the mode of transfer should be 8% on the premise that we have made substantial progress in structural adjustment and economic development. The word "good" takes precedence and guarantees the quality and efficiency of growth.
From the supply level and production level, at present, the proportion of China's tertiary industry is too low, accounting for 41.8% of the national economy, nearly 40% lower than the US, and 20% lower than the world average. The tertiary industry absorbs the most labor force in its structure, and the employment pressure in our country is the largest in the world. At the same time, we must also see that China's tertiary industry is not only low in proportion, but also low in level. It lacks modern service industries, such as industrial logistics, including finance, credit, insurance, and cultural industries. Therefore, we must develop the service industry, especially the modern service industry, as a breakthrough in structural adjustment, and vigorously develop the tertiary industry, especially the modern service industry.
From the perspective of demand, it is necessary to change China's long-term dependence on investment and export-driven economic models, and put the fundamental point on the pull of domestic demand, and increase infrastructure investment. In fact, expanding domestic demand is a very important platform for China's next round of economic growth. A large amount of investment will cause a country to form a large amount of production capacity, and if consumption cannot keep up, there will be overcapacity. Therefore, we must expand consumption and let consumption become the biggest driving force for economic growth, including increasing investment in people's livelihood and increasing social security.
At the same time, we must also change the way of relying on high energy consumption, high material consumption and high pollution in the past, so that technological progress and continuous improvement of innovation capabilities will provide more support for economic growth and replace a large amount of material resources.
Yao Jingyuan said that it is imperative to change the structure of the transfer, because this is an inevitable requirement for us to face the major changes in world demand and to prevent the risks of the world economy from bringing risks to the Chinese economy. It is our position to seize the commanding heights and form new advantages in the post-financial crisis era. The inevitable requirement is an inevitable requirement for the sustainable development of China's economy.
Yao Jingyuan said that this year will be a year in which China’s economic restructuring and development mode have undergone substantial progress. It is a year in which the service industry, especially the modern service industry, has a relatively rapid development. It is the driving force of consumption for the entire economic growth. A year that can play a bigger role. Despite the extremely complicated situation, with the correct leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and the joint efforts of entrepreneurs and hundreds of millions of people, the Chinese economy is still able to hand over a good report card this year.
In the face of economic difficulties, the company will not analyze the current economic development trend of China. Yao Jingyuan said that the growth rate of the above-scale industries in the first and second months of last year was only 3.8%. In the first two months of this year, the growth rate reached 20.7%, which is not easy. In the final analysis, the industrial stability and recovery. However, the more the stage of economic recovery, the more companies are eliminated.
In response to the problem of repatriation and labor shortage in the Pearl River Delta region in the beginning of this year, Yao Jingyuan said that when many companies encountered financial crisis last year, he suggested that enterprises should not lay off workers and fire workers. In fact, for Chinese companies, the most valuable asset is not the machine equipment, but the skilled and excellent workforce. When the company is eliminated, it is not the time of the financial crisis, but when the economy picks up. Facts have proved that when the economy recovers, a company with a skilled workforce can immediately take orders, produce, and have profits. Otherwise it will be eliminated. At present, some provinces in the central region have advertised that "the wages are only two hundred yuan, so they don't have to leave their homes." It can be seen that the migrant workers in the past were separated from the countryside, separated from the county, and left the province. They are now leaving the town and leaving the county, but they are not leaving the province. This also shows the rapid development of the old industrial bases in central, western and northeastern China. A considerable number of migrant workers can be employed without leaving the province. At the same time, from the severe employment unemployment situation to the current shortage of migrant workers, this is also a very important sign that the Chinese economy is stabilizing and recovering. Yao Jingyuan suggested that industrial enterprises should not lay off employees in the face of economic difficulties, but should focus on cultivating a skilled and excellent workforce.
Positive fiscal policy remains unchanged In 2009, with the negative economic growth of the world, the Chinese economy maintained a growth rate of 8.7%. Premier Wen Jiabao said in the government work report that the target of economic growth this year is still 8%. But "this 8" is not "the 8". Yao Jingyuan said that if 8% of last year was to maintain growth, protect people's livelihood, and maintain stability, then 8% of this year is a restructuring structure. This year's 8% is to be realized on the premise that we have made substantial progress in the structural adjustment and the transformation of the economic development mode. We must give priority to the word "good" and guarantee the quality and efficiency of growth. To ensure quality and efficiency, the most important thing is to maintain the continuity and stability of the policy.
Yao Jingyuan believes that the reason why China's economy has achieved a V-shaped reversal is that the Party Central Committee and the State Council can scientifically judge this difficulty and make decisive decisions, and implement a monetary policy including a positive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. A package of policies to deal with the crisis. On the other hand, China’s institutional advantage is a socialist system with Chinese characteristics. Although our system has many shortcomings and needs to continuously deepen reforms, the advantages of the system cannot be ignored. It can form the power of the whole nation, so that our hundreds of millions of people can overcome difficulties together and ensure that the Chinese economy achieves a V-shaped reversal.
At present, the recovery of China's economy is not equal to a fundamental improvement, and it still faces many difficulties. Including the uncertainty of external demand, the world economic recovery is slow. At the same time, the deep-seated contradictions and problems inherent in China's economy have not been well resolved. The Prime Minister proposed that this year is the most complicated year for the Chinese economy. In 2010, for the Chinese economy, both favorable and unfavorable factors appeared simultaneously, and short-term and long-term issues were intertwined, and domestic and international issues affected each other. In the face of complex situations, we must maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies. Including the continued implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy cannot be changed.
Yao Jingyuan said that there are two reasons for the unchanging. One is the fiscal deficit this year. The fiscal deficit this year is 1.05 trillion yuan. This is the first time in 60 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China that China's fiscal deficit exceeded 1 trillion yuan. That is to say, we still have to continue to implement positive The second is the financial investment of 750 billion yuan, lower than last year, 750 billion yuan in China's 30 years of reform and opening up is still quite high, and this year China's M2 (money-delivery) growth rate of 17%, M2 calculation is equivalent to " GDP + CPI", this year's GDP is 8%, CPI is 3%, and M2 is 17%. Moreover, 17% is equivalent to the average from 2003 to 2006. These three years are the period of rapid economic development and the most golden period for enterprises. Therefore, the above two data tell us that the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy will not change this year, and we must maintain the continuity and stability of growth.
CPI increase of 3%: It is difficult to achieve the most concerned about the current situation, how to look at the current price and inflation, Yao Jingyuan said that the Prime Minister proposed in this government work report, this year's full price (CPI) The rise is controlled at around 3%. Some time ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI in February reached 2.7%, approaching the warning line of 3%. In this regard, it can be considered that this year's CPI control is difficult within 3%, but it can be achieved.
He analyzed that this 2.7% is the price increase in February compared with February last year, and 2.01% of the 2.7% is food price increase, accounting for 74%. The important factor here is the Spring Festival (the New Year in February this year, and last year is January), which has raised the price to some extent. Coupled with climatic factors, this winter is cold and snowy, which makes it difficult to transport and grow vegetables, so the price of vegetables has risen a lot.
Yao Jingyuan frankly said that there was indeed pressure for price increases in 2010. Among the main factors driving price increases this year, the first risk is imported inflation. With the globalization of the economy, the prices of large-scale basic commodities such as oil and iron ore in the international market have generally risen, and China's dependence on large-scale basic commodities in the international market is very high, so domestic oil prices will also be pushed up. In addition, this year's inflation expectations are strong, and many people expect hyperinflation this year. This psychological factor is bound to cause some people to take action and go to the mall to buy. Expected factors will also pull up prices.
But there are also factors that inhibit inflation. Yao Jingyuan said that the first factor to curb price increases is agricultural stability and grain harvest, which laid an important foundation for price stability this year. In addition, the current domestic overcapacity, imbalance between supply and demand also makes the market no rush to buy.
Tune the structure: the development of modern service industry is a breakthrough. Yao Jingyuan said that the target of 8% growth this year is focused on restructuring, and the mode of transfer should be 8% on the premise that we have made substantial progress in structural adjustment and economic development. The word "good" takes precedence and guarantees the quality and efficiency of growth.
From the supply level and production level, at present, the proportion of China's tertiary industry is too low, accounting for 41.8% of the national economy, nearly 40% lower than the US, and 20% lower than the world average. The tertiary industry absorbs the most labor force in its structure, and the employment pressure in our country is the largest in the world. At the same time, we must also see that China's tertiary industry is not only low in proportion, but also low in level. It lacks modern service industries, such as industrial logistics, including finance, credit, insurance, and cultural industries. Therefore, we must develop the service industry, especially the modern service industry, as a breakthrough in structural adjustment, and vigorously develop the tertiary industry, especially the modern service industry.
From the perspective of demand, it is necessary to change China's long-term dependence on investment and export-driven economic models, and put the fundamental point on the pull of domestic demand, and increase infrastructure investment. In fact, expanding domestic demand is a very important platform for China's next round of economic growth. A large amount of investment will cause a country to form a large amount of production capacity, and if consumption cannot keep up, there will be overcapacity. Therefore, we must expand consumption and let consumption become the biggest driving force for economic growth, including increasing investment in people's livelihood and increasing social security.
At the same time, we must also change the way of relying on high energy consumption, high material consumption and high pollution in the past, so that technological progress and continuous improvement of innovation capabilities will provide more support for economic growth and replace a large amount of material resources.
Yao Jingyuan said that it is imperative to change the structure of the transfer, because this is an inevitable requirement for us to face the major changes in world demand and to prevent the risks of the world economy from bringing risks to the Chinese economy. It is our position to seize the commanding heights and form new advantages in the post-financial crisis era. The inevitable requirement is an inevitable requirement for the sustainable development of China's economy.
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