Today's point of view
Today, black commodity futures rose strongly, with coke rising the most, followed by the remaining contracts. Judging from the change in positions, the main contract of rebar and iron ore is lighter, and it is expected that the disk is in the process of shifting. As the sub-primary contract is more discounted than the spot market price, the short-term disk will still be strong, but beware of the fluctuations caused by the short-term technical correction. In terms of spot, today's billet and strip steel held steady operation, and the spot price increased slightly. Among them, hot coil and pipe stocks increased significantly, followed by rebar and plate. On the whole, the early market was generally weak, and the price was slightly loose. In the intraday, with the strong trend of black commodity futures, the market sentiment was warming up, and after the low volume was sold, the price rose. The short-term supply and demand fundamentals are still in the midst of mismatch repairs, and there is still room for upside, but be wary of the possibility of callbacks due to demand persistence issues.
Macro hotspot
1, [Apple futures closed higher, a variety of commodities hit a record high in the plate] Apple, Zheng alcohol closed up more than 5%, PTA, coke, iron ore, manganese silicon rose more than 4%, coking coal rose 3%, Zheng coal, Crude oil rose more than 2%, eggs, rubber, sugar, thread, corn, rapeseed, Zheng cotton rose more than 1%, hot coil, Shanghai nickel, soybean meal, cotton yarn, Shanghai silver, Shanghai copper, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai aluminum, ferrosilicon Waiting for the gains. Shanghai lead, glass fell more than 1%, Shanghai tin, Shanghai gold, plastics, etc. closed down.
2, [Shanghai stock index breaks 2700 points again, the concept of individual stocks fall is wilting]
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,705.16 points, up to a two-and-a-half-year low, down 1.29%, with a turnover of 133 billion.
The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8422.84 points, down 2.08%, with a turnover of 158.1 billion.
The GEM closed at 1440.80 points, down 2.75%, with a turnover of 47 billion.
3. In June, China's auto imports fell by 87.1% year-on-year, a huge drop. Recently, China Automobile Dealers Association released data showing that in June, China's auto imports were 15,000, down 87.1% year-on-year, a huge drop; In June, a total of 452,000 imported cars were sold, a decrease of 22.1% over the same period last year. Wang Cun, director of the Import Vehicle Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that the decline in imported cars in the first half of the year was so large that it was relatively rare in history. Unlike the previous decline in imports, the inventory is at a reasonable level this year, and the decline in imports is mainly affected by tariff policies.
4. [Economic growth has resilience, providing greater room for external challenges] Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the China National Economic Statistics Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of Statistics: China’s economy grew by 6.8% in the first half of this year, setting a gap of no more than 0.2 for 12 consecutive quarters. A record of a narrow percentage range of smooth running. This result is happening in the context of the complicated international environment and the domestic economy with rising labor and resource costs and overcapacity. It is not easy, fully reflecting the resilience of China's economic growth. The resilience of China's economic growth has provided a large room for mobilization in response to the challenges brought about by changes in the external environment, the embarrassment brought about by the traditional extensive development model, and the smooth transition to high-quality development.
Market today
Raw material
Billet: The national billet market price has slightly increased. Today, Tangshan and Shandong steel billets rose 10 yuan / ton, and other regions temporarily stabilized. Today, Tangshan billet straight hair transactions in general, warehousing spot 3940-3950 yuan / ton including tax out of the low-cost transaction is still acceptable, the period of steel shock operation, the overall sales of downstream finished products in general. Today, Shandong steel billet rose 10 yuan / ton, Q235 billet factory 3910-3920 yuan / ton, the transaction is still acceptable, the middlemen rallies to ship.
Domestic mines: Some market prices of domestically produced main producing areas increased slightly. The price of Qianxi in North China rose by RMB 10/ton, the price of Qian'an and Zunhua rose by RMB 5/ton, and the price of Yanxing Bureau rose by RMB 11/ton; the price of Zibo, Laiwu, Tai'an and Zaozhuang in East China rose by RMB 10/ton; South China The price of Heyuan rose by RMB 30/ton, and the price of Liuzhou rose by RMB 20/ton. Specifically, North China - Tangshan 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 670-680 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry basis tax-included cash out 670-680 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 685-695 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 670-680 yuan / ton.
Imported mines: Due to the sharp increase in the night trading on Friday, the mainstream high-quality powder ore offer for traders this morning was generally raised by 15-20 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of Shandong port PB powder was 495-500 yuan / ton, Tangshan port PB powder The mainstream offer is 510 yuan / ton, the bargaining space is less than 5 yuan / ton, and the price is sold. Steel mills and traders were active in enquiry, and the acceptance of price increases was acceptable. However, steel mills were cautious in purchasing at the beginning of the week, and early transactions occurred mostly among traders. The transaction price rose by RMB 15-20/ton from last Friday. In the afternoon, the disk was in a narrow range and the spot market was not volatile. It is expected that the market will be in volume after the close.
Steel spot
Construction steel: Today, domestic construction steel prices rose slightly. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,355 yuan / ton, up 13 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. Except for the price of Hefei and Urumqi, the rest of the region rose steadily, with the southwest region rising significantly. Second, Central China, East China, South China and North China. Specifically, the weekend market transactions were light, so the market quotations were stable in early trading, the market wait-and-see mood was strong, and the strong snails were boosted in the afternoon, the spot market transactions improved, and the prices of many places increased. At present, the supply side is affected by environmental protection, and it is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. On the demand side, although the transaction volume is still acceptable, the actual terminal demand is limited. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic construction steel price will fluctuate mainly tomorrow.
Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide rose slightly. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils was 4372 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the national average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4315. Yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's futures market fluctuated upwards, the market mentality was more optimistic, and the market price rose steadily. However, the current market demand has not improved significantly. The downstream users have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction volume is difficult to release. The operation of the merchants is still mainly based on shipments, and the price continues to rise. In addition, the price of Tangshan billet market remained stable today, and the current price of carbon billet is 3,850 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.
Plate: Today, the domestic plate market price rose slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4,420 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Although the market performance in the early trading market was consolidating, with the stimulation of factors such as the continued operation of the electronic disk in the afternoon and the slight increase in billet prices, the mentality of the spot market continued to be more. At present, the price increase in the short-term stimulates some demand to be released slightly, but the spot price is mostly driven by cost and futures. Therefore, the willingness to cash in some markets has become stronger. It is expected that the domestic plate market price will be dominated by high level consolidation tomorrow.
Cold-rolled coils: Today's national cold-rolled prices are mainly up. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4773 yuan / ton, an increase of 3 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4750 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4820 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4,620 yuan / ton. Market: Today's black commodity futures fluctuated upwards, and many places raised their spot prices slightly. The current market mentality is more optimistic. Today's market transactions have increased significantly, and demand has improved. However, some of the current specifications are still out of stock, merchant inventory is at a reasonable level, and normal arrivals are shipped. Overall, it is expected that the market price of cold-rolled spot will continue to fluctuate and run strongly next week.
Steel: Today's domestic steel market price is high, and the spot market is not strong enough, but the price and futures are good. Specifically, the price of Tangshan steel was stable in the morning, and the transactions were mostly concentrated in low-cost resources, and the overall transaction was active. In the afternoon, Tangshan Pufang billet rose by RMB 10/ton, which has certain support for steel sections. The intraday trading volume has increased by RMB 10/ton, the market confidence has gradually become positive, and the steel mills have a strong willingness to price. The price of East China's profiles is consolidating. Relatively speaking, the spot price continues to rise. The market mentality is not boosted as in the previous week. Some regions are more cautious, and the operation tends to be cashed out. The weekend shipments in the South China market are generally acceptable. Today's market opening offers a small price of around RMB 20/ton. Due to the high cost of late arrival, merchants are more reluctant to ship at lower prices. In the case of rising external market prices, the price of South China market will also rise. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will continue to strengthen and operate tomorrow.
Steel pipe: Domestic welded pipe prices continued to rise on the 6th. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4522 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 5237 yuan/ton, which is higher than the previous trading day. 8 yuan / ton; seamless pipe 108 * 4.5mm national average price 5316 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day price rose 13 yuan / ton. Today's mainstream urban welded pipes and galvanized pipes continue to rise, and seamless pipes continue to rise. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, today's Ruifeng strip steel prices have been raised slightly by RMB 20/ton, and only some mainstream manufacturers in the country have risen. According to the market, due to the recent rise in black futures, it has greatly boosted the market mentality. In addition, the recent high frequency limit notifications in the north, the supply is closer. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term domestic welded pipe and galvanized pipe prices will continue to rise, but the range will be narrowed. In terms of seamless tubes, Shandong tube billets continued to rise by RMB 30/ton today, and Jiangsu billet prices remained stable. The factory price of seamless pipes in Linyi Pipe Factory rose by RMB 50/ton today, and the base price of the factory reached RMB 5,000/ton. It is reported that the low-cost resources of traders have been sold out. According to the author's understanding, the orders of the factory are very good in the near future, and they are more optimistic about the market outlook. In addition, the overall steel market has risen recently, and the trader's mentality has gradually begun to change. In general, the price of seamless pipes has stabilized and strengthened recently.
Futures: Today, domestic black commodity futures rose across the board, raw materials continued to rise sharply, finished products rose slightly, market transactions continued to be active in volume, and funds flowed in sharply. Specifically: today's futures market has risen sharply again, its Chinese products At the end of the index, the high point in the last two years, the night plate is expected to hit a new high, all major commodities rose, the weak varieties of iron ore and coking coal also rose sharply today, the market entered a frenzy stage in the short term; the black system operation, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei The release of the autumn and winter limited production plan has once again boosted the market sentiment. At present, the market's bullish sentiment is still relatively strong. It is recommended to use the callback to do more or wait and see, and pay attention to the position.
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