Since July, due to the exceptionally sharp increase in the export volume of dual-component fertilizers, the industry has once speculated that tariffs will be overweight. Recently, a number of respondents in the industry told this newspaper that the possibility of a new round of tariff adjustment is very great, but the introduction of the new regulations will have limited impact on the fall market, and the Mingchun market will be filled with more uncertainty.
Due to the limitation of the benchmark price, the export of urea and diammonium in the off-season this year was significantly curbed. As of July, the amount of diammonium exported this year decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, and urea exports dropped by 48.04%. At the same time, low-tariff products such as nitrogen and phosphorus binary compound fertilizers, heavy calcium, etc. have gained a lot of fire thanks to their price and policy advantages. From January to July, the export of binary compound fertilizer was 1,248,500 tons, an increase of more than four times year-on-year. Last year, the export volume was only 748,000 tons; the export volume of heavy calcium increased by 93.56%; the Other exports of superphosphate increased 191.94% year-on-year.
Contrary to the flooded exports of low-tariff products such as Binfen, the price of fertilizers this year was significantly higher than last year, driven by the cost and export. Zhong Yong, deputy general manager of Anhui Hongsifang, said: “The price of monoammonium has risen from 1,700 to 1,800 yuan last year to about 3,000 yuan. Urea has risen from 1,500 to 1600 yuan last year to more than 2,000 yuan. Ammonium chloride is even more. From April to April, 600 to 700 yuan soared to about 1,100 yuan.†He said that the export of binary fertilizer is equivalent to the national policy to open a hole, is not conducive to price stability and fair competition, "policy tightening almost no suspense."
Mao Guobin, manager of sales company of Hubei Saning Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., also thinks that the new policy is "very high." Regarding the possible tightening of export policies, Mao Guobin stated that there is a great uncertainty in the current domestic economic growth. The industries such as autos and real estate have shown signs of falling under control. If the policy tightens for all industries, the economy The risk of recession will increase, "I estimate that the final tariff policy will be a compromise."
Affected by the rumors of tariff rumors, the prices of ammonium chloride and monoammonium recently dropped, and compound fertilizer manufacturers waited to see more emotion. The current concern of the industry is how the fertilizer market will be going in the second half and even next spring once the new policy is promulgated.
Xu Dongkui, Deputy General Manager of Marketing Co., Ltd. of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. believes that the domestic autumn market will end in mid-October. If the new policy is introduced in October, it will have little impact on the market in autumn, but considering the urea and diammonium after October. Both export windows are closed. If the third window is closed, the market situation in the spring will not be optimistic.
Mao Guobin believes that after four months of exports, the domestic market has been vacated, coupled with little inventory in the market, this year's lighter reserves will be better than last year. At the same time, the prices of raw materials remain strong, and even if the exports of diammonium, urea, and dibasic fertilizers are closed in the future, the impact on the market in the second half of the year will not be significant. In addition, from the perspective of healthy development of the industry, tightening exports should be a good thing, which is conducive to maintaining the current reasonable price and maintaining market rationality.
Due to the limitation of the benchmark price, the export of urea and diammonium in the off-season this year was significantly curbed. As of July, the amount of diammonium exported this year decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, and urea exports dropped by 48.04%. At the same time, low-tariff products such as nitrogen and phosphorus binary compound fertilizers, heavy calcium, etc. have gained a lot of fire thanks to their price and policy advantages. From January to July, the export of binary compound fertilizer was 1,248,500 tons, an increase of more than four times year-on-year. Last year, the export volume was only 748,000 tons; the export volume of heavy calcium increased by 93.56%; the Other exports of superphosphate increased 191.94% year-on-year.
Contrary to the flooded exports of low-tariff products such as Binfen, the price of fertilizers this year was significantly higher than last year, driven by the cost and export. Zhong Yong, deputy general manager of Anhui Hongsifang, said: “The price of monoammonium has risen from 1,700 to 1,800 yuan last year to about 3,000 yuan. Urea has risen from 1,500 to 1600 yuan last year to more than 2,000 yuan. Ammonium chloride is even more. From April to April, 600 to 700 yuan soared to about 1,100 yuan.†He said that the export of binary fertilizer is equivalent to the national policy to open a hole, is not conducive to price stability and fair competition, "policy tightening almost no suspense."
Mao Guobin, manager of sales company of Hubei Saning Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., also thinks that the new policy is "very high." Regarding the possible tightening of export policies, Mao Guobin stated that there is a great uncertainty in the current domestic economic growth. The industries such as autos and real estate have shown signs of falling under control. If the policy tightens for all industries, the economy The risk of recession will increase, "I estimate that the final tariff policy will be a compromise."
Affected by the rumors of tariff rumors, the prices of ammonium chloride and monoammonium recently dropped, and compound fertilizer manufacturers waited to see more emotion. The current concern of the industry is how the fertilizer market will be going in the second half and even next spring once the new policy is promulgated.
Xu Dongkui, Deputy General Manager of Marketing Co., Ltd. of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. believes that the domestic autumn market will end in mid-October. If the new policy is introduced in October, it will have little impact on the market in autumn, but considering the urea and diammonium after October. Both export windows are closed. If the third window is closed, the market situation in the spring will not be optimistic.
Mao Guobin believes that after four months of exports, the domestic market has been vacated, coupled with little inventory in the market, this year's lighter reserves will be better than last year. At the same time, the prices of raw materials remain strong, and even if the exports of diammonium, urea, and dibasic fertilizers are closed in the future, the impact on the market in the second half of the year will not be significant. In addition, from the perspective of healthy development of the industry, tightening exports should be a good thing, which is conducive to maintaining the current reasonable price and maintaining market rationality.
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