In addition to the United States, the most heated discussion about shale gas is China. The second round of shale gas tenders held in October this year pushed this enthusiasm to the top. The bidding is of great significance. In the words of Chen Weidong, chief energy researcher of the China National Petroleum Corporation's Energy Economics Research Institute, "in the history of China's modern oil industry, this is the first time that the company does not restrict the participation in upstream investment in oil and gas resources in the form of enterprise ownership." "Non-oil companies and private capital take the opportunity of shale gas exploration and development as an opportunity to enter the upstream field of oil and gas." Chen Weidong made the above statement at the "2012 China Shale Gas Development Forum" held in Beijing yesterday. . In addition to the excitement, the cautiousness of the four major oil and gas companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and Yanchang Petroleum) in bidding is worthy of attention. Zhang Dawei, director of the Mineral Resources Reserve Evaluation Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, said on December 3 that the non-oil companies, such as power companies, private capital, and even real estate companies that are completely untouched by energy, are active, and “oil and gas companies are flat.†The reason is worth considering. The four major oil and gas companies are now calmly treating shale gas mining because they have a choice. And other companies that have broken their heads in order to enter the upstream oil and gas field have room for profit in shale gas mining? This economic account requires a complex model to calculate. If everything is in an ideal state, shale gas mining may not be so unreliable. Longhua, chief analyst of Haitong Securities Machinery Industry, wrote in a speech on December 4, “The average cost of shale gas mining in the US is 0.67 yuan/cubic meter, or 2.99 US dollars/MMBtu, without considering subsidies. Million British fever. China's shale gas has not yet entered the stage of commercial exploitation. It is assumed that in the early stage of mining, the total recoverable capacity of a single well is 40 million to 60 million cubic meters, and the development cost of a single well is 60 million to 100 million yuan. The cost of gas without considering financial subsidies is 1.24-2.68 yuan/m3." This statement proposes three assumptions: 1. The production cost is 0.18 yuan/m3; 2. The subsidy per cubic meter is 0.4 yuan; 3. The gas output in the first two years of a single well accounts for 70% of the total life cycle of the well. According to this, the current price of wellhead gas in China is 1-1.5 yuan / cubic meter. From the sensitivity analysis, if the gas price reform can double the gas price, then the single-well capital production will be greatly reduced, which means there is more More gas reservoirs have mining value. Longhua wrote, "According to the gas price of 1-1.5 yuan / cubic meter, assuming that China's shale gas enters the mass production stage, the single well development cost is controlled at 40 million to 60 million yuan / port, corresponding to the daily average of two years before mining. The gas output is 23,000-4.8 million cubic meters per day, and many wells may not be profitable. If the natural gas wellhead price reaches 2-3 yuan/m3, the corresponding guaranteed production of a single well opening is 12,000-26,000 cubic meters/day. The profit opportunities of oil and gas exploration enterprises have become larger and the mining intensity has been strengthened, which is conducive to the improvement of shale gas production.†According to Longhua’s analysis, it is assumed that the wellhead gas price is 1 cubic meter “1.5 yuan + 0.4 yuan subsidyâ€, single well development The cost is 40 million yuan. Then, the typical shale gas well has a cost recovery period of 23 months. At the end of the fifth year of mining, the accumulated net cash inflow after eliminating costs was 33 million yuan. “The characteristics of shale gas development are large initial investment, high project risk, fast cash return, and high overall return. We can use the method of issuing trust financing to better match project cash flow through flexible arrangement of repayment period and yield. Equity financing and venture capital are better choices." Longhua said. However, it should be noted that the above model is based on a series of ideal conditions. The reality is much more complicated than the model. For the unprecedented enthusiasm for the development of shale gas, Chen Weidong lamented, "So far, the complex of the Great Leap Forward is still flowing in the blood of many people. I always want to get things done overnight, and I can cross it. In fact, I can’t cross it. Only the United States has succeeded. There are technical reasons and institutional reasons. These things are not only summarized, but also by Europeans."
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