Aluminium market early assessment: It is not advisable to close to adjust the target range short-term sell-off

The London Metal Exchange (LME) rallied the overall metals market Tuesday on the strength of the dollar and inflation concerns. The price of base metals fell as the recent financial market generally lowered, but due to tight supply, it still managed to maintain the range.
Aluminium followed other metals and began to fall in early trading. In the middle of trading, aluminum in the mid-term traded ahead of schedule and then recovered, with some losses regained in the late session. The final price closed at 2543 US dollars, down by 43 US dollars. The trading volume was 114,558, and 919 positions were added. , inventories fell 21,000 tons, which is some support for prices, the cash / three months premium 39.5 / 37.5 to grasp the starting point upward move now bottom Jiancang list of organizations will not only earn a sure win.
Barclays pointed out that aluminum is particularly vulnerable in the near-term, but the material in the medium-term continues to rise.
The investment bank Prudential Equity Group raised its 2006 base metal price estimate on Tuesday to reflect the recent commodity market trends. The bank lowered the forecast price of gold.
Prudential in the study report, this year's copper price forecast from 2.25 US dollars per pound to 2.70 per pound, aluminum was raised from 1.06 US dollars to 1.10 per pound, the nickel price was raised from 7.25 US dollars to 7.80, it is expected that silver will rise To 10.90, the original estimate was 6.90 per ounce.
However, the bank lowered its valuation for this year's gold price from $626 to $600.
The dollar rose across the board on Tuesday, because the media quoted the Federal Reserve Board (FED) officials said, would rather commit "slightly over-tightening" wrong in the fight against inflation, but also more secure. The uncertainty about the Fed’s intentions and the development of inflation has caused investors to fluctuate. Osu Sullivan, chief trader of Gain Capital, said that the recent turmoil of the US dollar - which fell sharply on Friday due to weak employment data - but this week was boosted by strong comments by FED officials - reflects this phenomenon.
London on Tuesday temporarily aluminum support at the previous low of 2530 to adjust the line, and this day inventory reduction, and copper is relatively "defensive" about. From a technical point of view, C5 is currently in normal operation. Various technical indicators also show that adjustments are also undergoing normal in-depth evolution. It is reasonable for London Aluminum to find support for 2500 or even to break this position in the short term.
Shanghai aluminum on Tuesday supported the 20800 line, expected Wednesday to test 20500 support down under the influence of London as well as domestic aluminum related species.
As London and China have already approached the adjustment target range, in the short-term market, it is not desirable to sell. Instead, the short position of highs should be gradually reduced, while paying close attention to the medium-term buying opportunities of London 2500 and domestic 20,000 lines.