Market features:
Ø May aluminum prices oscillate sharply in the international market in May
Ø Inventories increase mainly from China's exports
Ø China inventory can be used as an indicator of real consumption
Ø The spot price is weak, and the fluctuation of the water market is greater
Ø The price of alumina has a certain squat
Ø The market faces intermediate adjustment
May aluminum prices oscillate sharply in the international market in May
May is an extraordinary month. This month, Lon Aluminum can be said to have hit 3,000 U.S. dollars successfully, and was once rushed to 3,300 U.S. dollars. This is also unprecedented for aluminum prices in history, but When Aluminium was performing a bull market, the entire metal market experienced an intermediate adjustment at the same time. The aluminum market has also been greatly affected. The price has been falling all the way, although there is a certain rebound, but we see the adjustment pattern of the entire market and Without change, the market suddenly turned to a weaker decline, which had to make people wonder whether the current top of the metal is coming.
Inventories increase mainly from China's exports
We see that due to the increase in the price of the period, especially when the aluminum price reached 3,000 U.S. dollars at the beginning of May, we found that the inventory that had declined in the previous period appeared to be covered. This subsidy does not mean that the consumption has been reduced, but because of the foreign price. Rising, but the domestic prices are relatively weak. In the previous period, most of the aluminum plants in China chose to export. The market once said that if China has LME stock warehouses, the LME inventory will not be the current level, or that the Chinese spot price will not be the same. Weak, so part of the current inventory is China's exports, the current price decline, the market's inventory will be relatively slowing.
On the other hand, we have always said that consumption is an important factor in supporting aluminum prices, and part of the inventory reflects consumption. According to information from London on May 26, preliminary data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) showed that at the end of April 2006, the West The amount of aluminum inventories held by the national producers (excluding finished finished products) increased to 3.085 million tons, compared with 2.997 million tons at the end of March and 3.167 million tons at the end of April 2005. In April, raw aluminum stocks rose to 1.669 million tons, and in March and April last year, they were 1.59 million tons and 1.739 million tons respectively. Although IAI stocks have risen, we still think current stocks are lower.
The current production has already slowed down considerably, as we have mentioned many times before. The current May 22 news from London: Temporary data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) on Monday showed that the global average daily output of primary aluminum in April It was unchanged at 65,300 tons in March, compared to 63,800 tons in April 2005. In April (30 days), the global total output of primary aluminum was 1.96 million tons, compared with 2.024 million tons in March (31 days) and 1.915 million tons in April 2005.
Chinese inventory can be used as an indicator of real consumption
The increase in consumption has actually been very significant since 2004. The increase in consumption in China mainly reflects the expansion of aluminum product consumption and the processing orders that are attracted by the low prices of raw materials in the Chinese market. However, due to the persistently low prices of electrolytic aluminum in the past few years, consumer stocks actually have subtle components in the Chinese market, so inventory reflects the consumption and production itself is quite adequate. The increase or decrease in inventory under current conditions almost reflects the breakthrough direction of consumption balance. Without considering the impact of the decline in the global raw material market on aluminum sales prices, the inventory's reflection on consumption is almost what we think may be a real impact on prices. The key point is that once the inventory declines, we expect this decline to show acceleration, and the promotion of price will also lead to a change in the aluminum price structure. In the past two weeks, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's inventory has seen a continuous decline for the first time in the Benlunn bull market. This is a signal that we need to pay attention to. The market is facing consumer spending before the summer and it is worth looking forward to after spending the summer.
The spot price is weak, and the fluctuations in the water market are larger
We have seen a sharp correction in domestic spot prices last week due to the sharp adjustment of the international market. However, as far as we understand in the spot market, the goods in the spot market are not blindly sold due to falling prices. Instead, there has been a certain amount of tension, and the market’s consumer buying has been more positive, especially since the current price is around 20,000 yuan/ton, and premium water has also appeared from time to time when the price is high, but it has not been stable because the price is already at cost. Near the price, the market's downside has been limited, but we said that the current price will gradually stabilize.
Market price trend forecast
At present, domestic Shanghai aluminum prices may have some consumer buying under the support of consumption. However, we have said that the loosening of alumina prices has a great impact on aluminum prices. At present, we know that the price of alumina has fallen this month. The market is a big bearish, but we also see that the current alumina prices in the market will not decline quickly because of the country's need to make up the inventory, which makes current aluminum prices have more uncertainties. We say that the current The price fall is still limited, and the bubble may not be digested as much as other metals. We say that the current aluminum price will have a big disagreement at 20,000 yuan. At present, the intermediate adjustment of aluminum is inevitable.